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Thursday June 3, 2010 - 03:41:17 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 03-Jun-2010 - 0333 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Strong rise in the Dow yesterday to 10249.54 (+225.52, 2.25%). This has led to joy in Asia today, where all indices are in the green, ranging between 0.2% and 2.0%. A dampener is China, which is up only 0.18%.

Stocks in USA rose on strong car sales and pending home sales. The all important Non-Farm Payroll data is due tomorrow. Yesterday's rise in the Dow has changed the picture substantially. Repeated attempts to break below 10000 have failed. Chances of a rally look good now. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/djiacandle.shtml#candle

Indian stocks are likely to rise further today, bolstered by the good news.


COMMODITIES
Crude (73.53) has bounced back and is trading above 73 now. The Support at 72 mentioned earlier is holding. Better than expected US Pending Home Sales data that drove the US equity markets more that 2%, supported the price rise yesterday. As mentioned earlier, 76 is a very crucial Resistance to watch for and a strong break above it might trigger fresh rally towards 80. To see the Resistance on the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1221.90), though continuing to trade above 1200, is not showing much strength to see a strong break above 1220. A pull back breaking below 1200 from current levels might increase the chances of testing 1170-50 on the downside. However, the broader picture remains bullish and we might see a bounce back once again from 1170-50 region. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldcandle.shtml#candle


CURRENCIES
Some repsite to the unabated Euro selling. The currency is trading near 1.2285, and has decent chances of rising towards 1.25 if it manages to break past 1.23. Our expectation of overall stabilisation between 1.21-25 seems to be working. Dollar-Yen (92.20) continues to rise and should be targeting 93 over today-tomorrow. Possibly higher next week.

The Pound (1.4685) was choppy between 1.4770-4553 yesterday, but looks bullish overall, targeting 1.48. Dollar-Swiss (1.1530) remains stable as of now, but may dip towards 1.14, mirroring the bullishness in the Euro and Pound. The Aussie (0.8459) has also recovered smartly from the low of 0.8275 yesterday. Further gains quite likely today.

The Asian currencies are also trading stronger today. Dollar-Won trades lower near 1205.80, from 1225 yesterday. USD-SGD trades lower near 1.4025, down from 1.4150-75 seen over the last two days. Dollar-Rupee is quite likely to fall towards 46.80 today, after closing at 46.9850 yesterday.

INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.54%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 2 bps and 5 bps each to quote at 0.81% and 3.33% respectively. Though the yields have risen in the last one week, it is still within the strong downtrend seen since April. To see the USD Yields graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00


DATA TODAY
May Australia Trade Balance
... Actual A$ 0.13 Bln...Previous A$ -2.04 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/autrbal.shtml

09:00 GMT EU Retail Sales
... Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.0%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/euretail.shtml

12:15 GMT US ADP Emp
... Expected 56K...Previous 32K

DATA YESTERDAY
------------
AU GDP QoQ (Mar'10)
...Actual 0.5%...Previous 1.1%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/augdp.shtml

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
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