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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 03/06/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis
June 3, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: US Nonfarm
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Nonfarm
Payrolls. The data measures the change in the number of employed people during
the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll
accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross
domestic product of the United States. It is the single most important piece of
data contained in the employment report, which considered to offer the best
overview of the economy. The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can
be quite volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of
500K, a significant change from the past reading of
---Euro Dollar In
what may be considered some kind of a surprise, the Euro broke the falling
channel on the hourly & 4-hour charts at 1.2270 during the Asian session!
This break could cause a lot of excitement before the weekend. It is only
logical to expect more rise after this break. But we will not put our bets on
it, before breaking the last top inside the broken channel, which was 1.2351.
This is for the short term, but for the medium term, the Euro will stay weak
until it breaks 1.2456 in a real and decisive way. So, todayâ€™s resistance is at
1.2351, and only after a break here we would expect a continuation of the rising
move. If this break happens, the first target will be a test of the single most
important resistance for the time being 1.2456. And if this one is also broken,
then 1.2560 will be a first & modest target, on the way to higher targets
later. On the other hand, the support is at 1.2280, and breaking it would mean
that the Euroâ€™s channel break is losing momentum and effect, and that the price
will resume its downtrend. The targets for such a break would be 1.2174, and
then the last important support before the 1.20 level, which is at
â€¢ 1.2280: the rising trend line from
yesterdayâ€™s low on intraday charts/
â€¢ 1.2174: yesterdayâ€™s low.
Apr 13th 2006 low, the last important support before
â€¢ 1.2351: the last top on the series of
tops defining the broken channel, which was broken during the Asian
â€¢ 1.2456: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670.
â€¢ 1.2560: May
Dollar/Yen reached the long awaited 91.84! But the surprise was that it broke
it, easily, and managed to reach 92.34 (todayâ€™s high until the moment of
preparing this report). This break will improve the weak technical outlook on
the short term. But reaching the top of rising trend channel on the hourly &
4-hours charts indicates that the Dollar will face difficulties in its struggle
to achieve more gains (please refer to the attached chart). Therefore, the
dollar should break the top of this channel as soon as possible to maintain the
positive technical outlook which emerged after breaking 91.84. If we break the
resistance at 92.31, we will see the price jump to 9295 and may be 93.65 before
the weekend. On the other hand, the support is at 92.02, and if broken, the
price will correct its last surge, in a correction which would ideally target
the area between 91.05 & 90.25. The latter has become he most important
support for the short term, for now.
â€¢ 92.02: the
bottom of the rising trend channel from yesterdayâ€™s low on intraday charts.
91.05: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the rising move from 88.96.
Fibonacci 61.8% level for the rising move from
â€¢ 92.31: the top of the rising channel on
the hourly chart.
â€¢ 92.95: May 18th high.
â€¢ 93.65: Apr 6th
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You
should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your
circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of
your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject
to change at any time.
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