European Market Update: G20 Draft highlights the need for state of constant alertness (Trade the News)
Thursday, June 03, 2010
European Market Update: G20 Draft highlights the need for state of constant alertness
- (UK) May Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.5 v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 9.8 v 9.6%e - (ID) Indonesia Central Bank maintained the Reference Rate at 6.50%; as expected - (FR) France Q1 ILO Unemployment: 9.9% v 10.1%e; Mainland Unemployment: 9.5% v 9.7%e; Change Mainland Unemployment: 4K v 106K prior - (IR) Ireland NCB Services PMI: 52.4 v 51.0 prior - (TU) Turkey May Consumer Prices M/M: -0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 9.1% v 10.1%e - (TU) Turkey May Producer Prices M/M: -1.2% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 9.2% v 11.7%e - (SP) Spain May Services PMI: 52.3 v 50.9 prior; Best reading since Oct 2007 - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e May 28th: $455.0B v $453.4B prior - (NV) Netherlands May CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e - (NV) Netherlands May CPI EU harmonized M/M: -0.1% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.6% prior - (IT) Italy May PMI Services: 53.7 v 54.8e; three month low - (FR) France May Final PMI Services: 61.4 v 61.9e - (GE) Germany May Final PMI Services: 54.8 v 53.7e; three month low - (EU) Euro Zone May Final PMI Services: 56.2 v 56.0e; PMI Composite: 56.4 v 56.2e - (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) leaves its Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 4.00%; as expected - (UK) May PMI Services: 55.4 v 55.7e - (EU) Euro Zone Apr Retail Sales M/M: -1.2% v 0.1%e (largest MoM decline since Oct 2008); Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.1%e - (SA) South Africa May SACCI Business Confidence: 82.0 v 84.2 prior
Fixed Income: - (FR) France sells â‚¬1.38B in Apr 3.75% 2017 Oats; avg yield 2.47%; Bid-to-cover 2.5x v 2.8x prior - (FR) France sells â‚¬2.57B in Apr 3.50% 2020 Oats; avg yield 3.05%; Bid-to-cover 2.3x v 1.5x prior - (FR) France sells â‚¬3.36B in Apr 3.75% 2021 Oats; avg yield 3.15%; Bid-to-cover 1.7x v 1.8 prior - (FR) France sells â‚¬975M in Apr 5.50% 2029 Oats; avg yield 3.65%; Bid-to-cover 2.4x v 1.8x prior - (UK) (UK) DMO sells Â£2.0B in 4.5% 2034 Gilts; avg yield 4.327%; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 2.1x prior; Tail 0.1bps
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equities opened the session sharply higher, supported by the overnight gains in the US, which were driven by better than expected US auto sales and housing data. The opening gains were led by resources related companies, automakers, and companies that reported figures, including Valeo, King Fisher and Air France. As of , equities have moved off of their best levels, after BP's credit rating was cut by Fitch. Just ahead of the NY morning the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 2.1% at 2,655; FTSE 100 Index up 1.8% at 5,246; CAC-40 Index up 2.3% at 3,581 and DAX up 1.7% at 6,083
- In Individual Stocks: British Petroleum [BP.UK]: After analysts at HSBC expressed confidence that dividend may be safe if the latest procedure succeeds, Fitch downgraded the ratings by one notch to AA from AA+. Fitch also placed company on watch negative. Cited the risks to company's business and financial profile. Noted that company had repeatedly failed to stop the oil leak and the criminal investigation opened as a result. // Xtrata [XTA.UK]: Company decided to suspend 2 projects valued at A$586M following review of mining tax. Company said that the tax eleminates all the value of Wandoan project and substantially lowers the value of Ernest Henry. // Johnson Matthey [JMAT.UK]: Reported pretax profit and revenues of respectively Â£254.1M and Â£7.84 both above estimates of Â£248M and Â£7.6B. Group expected to make good progress in the first half of 2010/11 and underlying profit before tax should be significantly higher than the same period of 2009/10. // Ahold [AH.NV]: Reported net profit of â‚¬274M slightly above estimates of â‚¬270M, revenues of â‚¬8.74B also above estimates of â‚¬8.6B. Operating profit was â‚¬409M slightly lower than estimates of â‚¬410M. CEO expected market conditions to remain challenging and expected to return to inflation in H2. Reaffirmed mid-term operating margin target at 5%.// Kingfisher [KGF.UK]: Reported Q1 revenues of Â£2.64B slightly below estimates of Â£2.7B. LFL declined 1.8%. Synergy Healthcare [SYR.UK]: Reported net profit and pretaz ajdusted profit at respectively Â£22M and Â£32.6M, both numbers above estimates of Â£20M and Â£32M. Revenues at Â£286.4M were slightly lower than estimates of Â£291M. Expected further margin progression.
- Speakers: G20 draft communiqu noted that international cooperation was needed to address market volatility. G20 members were continuously pursuing economic policies that are coordinated and prepared to do whatever is necessary to achieve financial stability. The Euro crisis showed how important sustainable public finances are and the recent market volatility recently showed the fragility of global economy. Deficit States must quickly pursue credible growth-friendly consolidation. G20 members are closely monitoring the economy in a state of constant alertness***Canada Fin Min Flaherty reiterated the view that the global economic recovery was fragile but added that the time was approaching for G20 nation members to implement exit strategies. *** Reportedly Germany Finance Ministry to lower 2010 Federal net new borrowings of apprx â‚¬70B from prior view of â‚¬80B ***China Banking Regulator (CBRC) commented that the total outstanding property loans by banks in Shanghai came in at CNY844.4B. The regulator added that the banks non-performing loans (NPL) ratio might rise to 1.41% from 1.04% due to declines in property prices. It also noted that loans related to property development slowed *** India Trade Min Sharma: Reiterates view that Rupee currency not at the stage where RBI would likely intervene ***BoE's Posen commented in a Japanese newspaper interview that the EU debt crisis could spread into the UK as well as the US. He noted that the biggest issue was to make European banks healthy again *** Iraq Oil Min Hussain Al-Shahristani commented that he expected oil prices to rebound and that recent weakness was attributed to effects from Euro debt crisis impact from the usual speculators
-Currencies/Fixed income: Risk appetite that started on Wednesday during the NY morning carried its momentum into Asia and Europe. The Euro had benefited from resurgence in risk appetite sentiment while the USD and JPY were softer against the major pairs and commodity-related currencies. EUR/USD managed to regain a foothold above 1.23 for the early part of the session but some of the euphoria has waned ahead of the NY morning following porr Euro Zobe Retail Sales data for April. USD/JPY tested its best level since May 18th as it move above 92.70. EUR/JPY cross re-approached 114 but dealers noted the pair remained below it its former 9-year uptrend line area (now seen at 115.30)
- Geo-Political: Swiss parliament panel recommended that Parliament back US-UBS agreement to submit client data suspected of tax evasion, though it also voted in favor of holding a nationwide referendum on whether to disclose information for the approximately 4,500 US accounts to the tax authorities. *** Guardian article UK Chancellor Osborne plans to give the Bank of England most of the power held by the UK financial regulator FSA. The Bank of England will be given macro prudential regulation supervision. *** Portugal parliament approved the general austerity framework on Wednesday, which is the first part of a two part procedure, with the final vote scheduled for the 9th June. According to the plan, Portugal aims to accelerate the reduction of the budget deficit with savings of â‚¬2B planned this year to cut the budget to 7.3% of GDP from 9% last year. The budget is to be cut further to 4.6% of GDP next year. The austerity measures includes tax increases in income and value added taxes (VAT), and cuts in public sector salary. The final vote cannot alter the total amounts approved in the general guideline. Note that the plan was approved with opposition support.
***Notes/Observations: - Risk appetite finds some traction over the last 24 hours ahead of US payroll data on Friday - G20 Draft highlights the need for state of constant alertness - Xstrata shelved spending on projects worth A$6.6B due to Australia's planned mining tax - Fitch cuts British Petroleum [BP.UK] one notch to "AA" and on watch negative
***Looking Ahead*** - 7:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart on US outlook - 8:15 (US) May ADP Employment Change: 70Ke v 32K prior - 8:30 (US) Q1 Final Nonfarm Productivity 3.4%e v 3.6% prior; Unit labor Costs: -1.4%e v -1.6% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 455Ke v 460K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.610Me v 4.607M prior - 10:00 (US) Apr Factory Orders: 1.8%e v 1.1% prior (revised) - 10:00 (US) May ISM Non-Manufacturing: 55.6e v 55.4 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico May Consumer Confidence: 82.9e v 82.5 prior - 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly Inventories - 10:30 (US) May ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior - 11:15 (US) Fed Chair Bernanke on small business needs - 12:00 (IC) Iceland Q1 Current Account (ISK): no est v -13.0B prior - 12:15 (US) Fed's Rosengren speaks on financial crisis - 13:00 (MX) Mexico May IMEF Manufacturing Index: 54.2e v 54.6 prior; NoN Manufacturing index: 54.0e v 54.1 prior - 13:15 (US) Fed's Hoenig speaks on banking issues
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.