European Market Update: G20 Draft highlights the need for state of constant alertness (Trade the News)
Thursday, June 03, 2010
European Market Update: G20 Draft highlights the need for state of constant alertness
- (UK) May Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.5 v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 9.8 v 9.6%e - (ID) Indonesia Central Bank maintained the Reference Rate at 6.50%; as expected - (FR) France Q1 ILO Unemployment: 9.9% v 10.1%e; Mainland Unemployment: 9.5% v 9.7%e; Change Mainland Unemployment: 4K v 106K prior - (IR) Ireland NCB Services PMI: 52.4 v 51.0 prior - (TU) Turkey May Consumer Prices M/M: -0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 9.1% v 10.1%e - (TU) Turkey May Producer Prices M/M: -1.2% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 9.2% v 11.7%e - (SP) Spain May Services PMI: 52.3 v 50.9 prior; Best reading since Oct 2007 - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e May 28th: $455.0B v $453.4B prior - (NV) Netherlands May CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e - (NV) Netherlands May CPI EU harmonized M/M: -0.1% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.6% prior - (IT) Italy May PMI Services: 53.7 v 54.8e; three month low - (FR) France May Final PMI Services: 61.4 v 61.9e - (GE) Germany May Final PMI Services: 54.8 v 53.7e; three month low - (EU) Euro Zone May Final PMI Services: 56.2 v 56.0e; PMI Composite: 56.4 v 56.2e - (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) leaves its Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 4.00%; as expected - (UK) May PMI Services: 55.4 v 55.7e - (EU) Euro Zone Apr Retail Sales M/M: -1.2% v 0.1%e (largest MoM decline since Oct 2008); Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.1%e - (SA) South Africa May SACCI Business Confidence: 82.0 v 84.2 prior
Fixed Income: - (FR) France sells â‚¬1.38B in Apr 3.75% 2017 Oats; avg yield 2.47%; Bid-to-cover 2.5x v 2.8x prior - (FR) France sells â‚¬2.57B in Apr 3.50% 2020 Oats; avg yield 3.05%; Bid-to-cover 2.3x v 1.5x prior - (FR) France sells â‚¬3.36B in Apr 3.75% 2021 Oats; avg yield 3.15%; Bid-to-cover 1.7x v 1.8 prior - (FR) France sells â‚¬975M in Apr 5.50% 2029 Oats; avg yield 3.65%; Bid-to-cover 2.4x v 1.8x prior - (UK) (UK) DMO sells Â£2.0B in 4.5% 2034 Gilts; avg yield 4.327%; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 2.1x prior; Tail 0.1bps
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equities opened the session sharply higher, supported by the overnight gains in the US, which were driven by better than expected US auto sales and housing data. The opening gains were led by resources related companies, automakers, and companies that reported figures, including Valeo, King Fisher and Air France. As of , equities have moved off of their best levels, after BP's credit rating was cut by Fitch. Just ahead of the NY morning the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 2.1% at 2,655; FTSE 100 Index up 1.8% at 5,246; CAC-40 Index up 2.3% at 3,581 and DAX up 1.7% at 6,083
- In Individual Stocks: British Petroleum [BP.UK]: After analysts at HSBC expressed confidence that dividend may be safe if the latest procedure succeeds, Fitch downgraded the ratings by one notch to AA from AA+. Fitch also placed company on watch negative. Cited the risks to company's business and financial profile. Noted that company had repeatedly failed to stop the oil leak and the criminal investigation opened as a result. // Xtrata [XTA.UK]: Company decided to suspend 2 projects valued at A$586M following review of mining tax. Company said that the tax eleminates all the value of Wandoan project and substantially lowers the value of Ernest Henry. // Johnson Matthey [JMAT.UK]: Reported pretax profit and revenues of respectively Â£254.1M and Â£7.84 both above estimates of Â£248M and Â£7.6B. Group expected to make good progress in the first half of 2010/11 and underlying profit before tax should be significantly higher than the same period of 2009/10. // Ahold [AH.NV]: Reported net profit of â‚¬274M slightly above estimates of â‚¬270M, revenues of â‚¬8.74B also above estimates of â‚¬8.6B. Operating profit was â‚¬409M slightly lower than estimates of â‚¬410M. CEO expected market conditions to remain challenging and expected to return to inflation in H2. Reaffirmed mid-term operating margin target at 5%.// Kingfisher [KGF.UK]: Reported Q1 revenues of Â£2.64B slightly below estimates of Â£2.7B. LFL declined 1.8%. Synergy Healthcare [SYR.UK]: Reported net profit and pretaz ajdusted profit at respectively Â£22M and Â£32.6M, both numbers above estimates of Â£20M and Â£32M. Revenues at Â£286.4M were slightly lower than estimates of Â£291M. Expected further margin progression.
- Speakers: G20 draft communiqu noted that international cooperation was needed to address market volatility. G20 members were continuously pursuing economic policies that are coordinated and prepared to do whatever is necessary to achieve financial stability. The Euro crisis showed how important sustainable public finances are and the recent market volatility recently showed the fragility of global economy. Deficit States must quickly pursue credible growth-friendly consolidation. G20 members are closely monitoring the economy in a state of constant alertness***Canada Fin Min Flaherty reiterated the view that the global economic recovery was fragile but added that the time was approaching for G20 nation members to implement exit strategies. *** Reportedly Germany Finance Ministry to lower 2010 Federal net new borrowings of apprx â‚¬70B from prior view of â‚¬80B ***China Banking Regulator (CBRC) commented that the total outstanding property loans by banks in Shanghai came in at CNY844.4B. The regulator added that the banks non-performing loans (NPL) ratio might rise to 1.41% from 1.04% due to declines in property prices. It also noted that loans related to property development slowed *** India Trade Min Sharma: Reiterates view that Rupee currency not at the stage where RBI would likely intervene ***BoE's Posen commented in a Japanese newspaper interview that the EU debt crisis could spread into the UK as well as the US. He noted that the biggest issue was to make European banks healthy again *** Iraq Oil Min Hussain Al-Shahristani commented that he expected oil prices to rebound and that recent weakness was attributed to effects from Euro debt crisis impact from the usual speculators
-Currencies/Fixed income: Risk appetite that started on Wednesday during the NY morning carried its momentum into Asia and Europe. The Euro had benefited from resurgence in risk appetite sentiment while the USD and JPY were softer against the major pairs and commodity-related currencies. EUR/USD managed to regain a foothold above 1.23 for the early part of the session but some of the euphoria has waned ahead of the NY morning following porr Euro Zobe Retail Sales data for April. USD/JPY tested its best level since May 18th as it move above 92.70. EUR/JPY cross re-approached 114 but dealers noted the pair remained below it its former 9-year uptrend line area (now seen at 115.30)
- Geo-Political: Swiss parliament panel recommended that Parliament back US-UBS agreement to submit client data suspected of tax evasion, though it also voted in favor of holding a nationwide referendum on whether to disclose information for the approximately 4,500 US accounts to the tax authorities. *** Guardian article UK Chancellor Osborne plans to give the Bank of England most of the power held by the UK financial regulator FSA. The Bank of England will be given macro prudential regulation supervision. *** Portugal parliament approved the general austerity framework on Wednesday, which is the first part of a two part procedure, with the final vote scheduled for the 9th June. According to the plan, Portugal aims to accelerate the reduction of the budget deficit with savings of â‚¬2B planned this year to cut the budget to 7.3% of GDP from 9% last year. The budget is to be cut further to 4.6% of GDP next year. The austerity measures includes tax increases in income and value added taxes (VAT), and cuts in public sector salary. The final vote cannot alter the total amounts approved in the general guideline. Note that the plan was approved with opposition support.
***Notes/Observations: - Risk appetite finds some traction over the last 24 hours ahead of US payroll data on Friday - G20 Draft highlights the need for state of constant alertness - Xstrata shelved spending on projects worth A$6.6B due to Australia's planned mining tax - Fitch cuts British Petroleum [BP.UK] one notch to "AA" and on watch negative
***Looking Ahead*** - 7:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart on US outlook - 8:15 (US) May ADP Employment Change: 70Ke v 32K prior - 8:30 (US) Q1 Final Nonfarm Productivity 3.4%e v 3.6% prior; Unit labor Costs: -1.4%e v -1.6% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 455Ke v 460K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.610Me v 4.607M prior - 10:00 (US) Apr Factory Orders: 1.8%e v 1.1% prior (revised) - 10:00 (US) May ISM Non-Manufacturing: 55.6e v 55.4 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico May Consumer Confidence: 82.9e v 82.5 prior - 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly Inventories - 10:30 (US) May ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior - 11:15 (US) Fed Chair Bernanke on small business needs - 12:00 (IC) Iceland Q1 Current Account (ISK): no est v -13.0B prior - 12:15 (US) Fed's Rosengren speaks on financial crisis - 13:00 (MX) Mexico May IMEF Manufacturing Index: 54.2e v 54.6 prior; NoN Manufacturing index: 54.0e v 54.1 prior - 13:15 (US) Fed's Hoenig speaks on banking issues
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