Tuesday March 22, 2005 - 01:42:41 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Forecast for the Swiss Franc vs U.S. Dollar 22nd March 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.1796 ... 1.1826 ... 1.1869 ... 1.1896
Support....: 1.1755 ... 1.1734 ... 1.1705 ... 1.1689
We cautiously look for a choppy correction down to the 1.1689-1.1705 area
We saw gains as expected but which breached the 1.1770-80 target and almost reached the next resistance at 1.1812. We take this as a bullish break higher but do expect a small retracement today. Thus only back above 1.1806 and also the 1.1826 high would imply that we shall see gains resume directly and should then reach 1.1896 at least and we suspect even higher with resistance seen between 1.1940-70.
Gains reached 1.1806 yesterday and we feel this should limit the upside for now and today should see further erratic dips. Resistance is seen at 1.1796 (and then between 1.1806-26) and while these hold any break back below 1.1769 would allow the drift lower to make its way down to 1.1734 and probably 1.1705 at least. Slight caution should be exercised below here with next Fibonacci and pivot support at 1.1689 which we tentatively feel will hold. Further support is at 1.1654.
Elliott Wave Comments:
21st March 2005
Break above 1.1596 should now imply a test of the Wave -b- corrective high at 1.1778 and we expect this over the next few days. Being a 138.2% projection of Wave -i- it should cause a pullback in Wave -iv- before a rally in Wave -v-. We shall need to watch price development but we feel the 1.1970 area could well provide a peak for Wave -v-.
22nd March 2005
Price rallied well to 1.1806 which was just a few points below the 161.8% projection of Wave -i- at 1.1812.Thus we have labeled this as Wave -iii- and now look for a correction in Wave -iv- before further gains. Given the Wave -ii- was short in duration but very deep we suspect Wave -iv- will be longer in duration but quite shallow. We therefore target the 1.1689-1.1705 area (33% and 38.2% retracements) for Wave -iv- but should take note of the 50% retracement level at 1.1654. From here we will look for Wave -v- to commence and reach the 1.1940-70 area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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