10:00 GMT- June 3 (global-view.com) Trading appears to be cautious heading into a slew of U.S. employment data over the next two sessions. Today sees the ADP private employment report, which recently has been a better predictor of non-farm payrolls. A big jump is seen in the May non-farm payrolls data on Friday due to a surge in temporary census hiring. Many on Friday will be more focused on the ex-census data on Friday. A gain of less than 100K is seen in private payrolls today and tomorrow. Weekly jobless claims today are unrelated to the monthly data because he were taken on another date. Furthermore, they have run consistently disappointing all year.
The JPY continues weak as It appears that FinMin Kan will become the next PM of Japan on Friday. Kan has been a strong advocate of combating deflation and has favored a weaker JPY. Japan traditionally has been run by a strong entrenched bureaucracy. No major policy changes should be expected from the new leadership, although the government will keep pressure on the central bank to continue quantitative ease. The EUR seems to be benefiting from flows out of the JPY.
The EURUSD is higher on the day and the GBPUSD is firmer. The EURGBP is even. Traders have been keeping a close eye on European sovereign debt situation and on the threat of forex intervention in the EUR.
In the GBP, the U.K. new government is weak. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.
The EURCHF is steady. SNB intervention tactics have changed, as recently the SNB has taken a strong stand. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The SNB has set a EURCHF floor of 1.4000.
The USDJPY pair is up and the EURJPY cross is higher. The change in government in Japan is not expected to have a lasting impact. Japanese public finances are a worry. however JGB bonds are mostly owned by Japanese. The government wants a lower exchange rate and has warned the markets about the JPY. It also has been pressing the BOJ to promote growth.
Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). The commodity currencies are now higher. RBA monetary policy is steady. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25bps but sent dovish signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in.
Far East equities closed mostly higher. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.38%, +4 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: In North America , U.S. ADP jobs data, 1Q10 productivity, weekly jobless claims, Service PMI and Factory orders are due. Also the weekly crude and national gas inventories will be released.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
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