Increased Risk Appetite; Position Squaring Boost Equities
equities are called higher this morning after posting a strong gain on
Wednesday and a follow-thorough rally last night. The stable Euro is
contributing to the rally along with position squaring ahead of Fridayâ€™s U.S.
Employment Report. In addition, traders seem to be getting a little more
optimistic that the global economic recovery is getting back on track based on
fairly decent U.S.
On Wednesday, a better than expected U.S. home sales report helped drive
stock prices higher. Traders took advantage of the thin trading conditions to
drive the three major indices higher after failing to follow-through to the
downside following Tuesdayâ€™s sharp sell-off.
The June E-mini found support earlier in the week following
a test of a minor 50% retracement level at 1071.75 and is now in a position to
test a major 50% price level at 1105.75 and last weekâ€™s high at 1106.75.
Watch for an acceleration to the upside following a breakout
through 1106.75, triggering a change in trend to up. This will mark the first
change in trend to up since May 4th. More buyers could pile in the
market which could eventually send the E-mini S&P 500 into the next
retracement level at 1122.00.
September Treasury Bonds are trading lower, pressured by the
Wednesdayâ€™s good U.S.
housing number and the liquidation of safer assets. Once again the T-Bonds
failed to take advantage of the room on the upside and instead have settled
into a range. Look for this market to remain sensitive to the direction of the
stock market. The break through the series of lows at 122â€™05 is a sign of lower
markets to follow. A strong rally in the equity markets could send the T-Bonds
Both September Crude Oil and August Gold are holding steady
this morning but seem ready to react to the strong rally in equities. Gold
seems poised to drop sharply should demand pick up for equities. A failure to
hold $1219.50 will be the first sign of weakness. A trade through $1209.70 will
likely accelerate the move to the downside.
Greater demand for riskier assets should help crude oil
rally. Traders seem to be waiting for todayâ€™s oil inventory report before
making there move however. The charts indicate that there is room to the upside
with 80.88 the next likely target.
The June Japanese Yen is breaking sharply lower, weakened by
greater demand for risky assets and on speculation that the next prime minister
will favor a weaker currency.
The Japanese Yen began to weaken Wednesday following the
resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.Traders are worried that the economy will
weaken further during the election process at a time when Chinaâ€™s economy is slowing and Europe
continues to struggle. In addition, speculators are selling the currency
because they believe the next prime minister will be NaotoKan
who favors a weaker currency.
Look for downside pressure to continue to on the June
Japanese Yen as long as it remains under the .618 retracement level at 1.0854.
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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