***Economic Data*** - (US) May ADP Employment Change: 55K v 70Ke - (US) Q1 Final Nonfarm Productivity 2.8% v 3.4%e; Unit labor Costs: -1.3% v -1.4%e - (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 453K v 455Ke; Continuing Claims: 4.666M v 4.610Me - (US) Apr Factory Orders: 1.2% v 1.8%e - (US) May ISM Non-Manufacturing: 55.4 v 55.6e; Prices Paid: 60.6 v 64.7 prior - (MX) Mexico May Consumer Confidence: 84.6 v 82.9e - (US) EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +88bcf v +90 to +100 bcf estimate range - (US) May ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior - (US) DOE Weekly Inventories: Crude: M v -250Ke; Gasoline: K v -500Ke; Distillate: K v +250Ke; Utilization: % v 88.0%e -
- Yesterday's US equity rally helped sharpen risk appetite overseas, driving gains on Asian indices (with the notable exception of Shanghai) and European bourses. This morning's US economic data has sustained investors' taste for risk in the US session, with all three leading US indices firmly in positive territory, although further upside may be limited by the fact that April factory orders and the May ISM services data both fell just short of expectations. Investors are eagerly awaiting tomorrow's May employment reports after this morning's jobs reports. The weekly claims data came in lower than expectations for the first time since the beginning of April, while the May ADP numbers were mixed (the sequential gains among small and medium sized businesses and in the service sector are good news, although larger sequential losses were seen among manufacturers). European bourses finished substantially higher on the day but near their lows for the session as reports out of Hungary renewed some contagion concerns which have produced some more risk averse trade late in the NY morning. Front month crude is up a buck in early trading, with the contract just shy of $74 mid morning. Treasury prices are lower but off their worst levels. The 10-year benchmark yield briefly popped above 3.4% before falling back.
- Shares of mining equipment manufacturer Joy Global spiked up to +10% immediately after the opening bell, although the name dropped back to +4.5% within the first hour of trading. Joy crushed top- and bottom-line expectations and also raised its 2010 outlook significantly. Executives noted that orders are coming from projects that were previously put on hold and from brown field expansions. Bucyrus also spiked in tandem with Joy, while Cat gained 2% as well. Suntech Power is down 3% in early trading after missing earnings expectations and warning that its margins would decline next quarter on euro FX declines.
- Much like April comps, May same-store sales indicate slowing in US consumer spending. Cool weather and a late Memorial Day weekend impacted business in May, although longer-term trends of high unemployment and fears about the state of the economic recovery surely played a role as well. Notable apparel names racked up positive comps that beat expectations, including The Gap, Limited Brands, Ross Stores and TJX. Teen oriented mall chains were hit badly, and American Eagle, Abercrombie, Hot Topic and Wet Seal all reported another month of comp declines. Warehouse retailer BJs saw improvement over April levels, beating expectations, whereas Costco slipped a bit over the prior month. Department store names saw mixed results: higher end names Saks and Macy's grew sales and exceeded expectations, as did mid-range name Kohl's. JC Penny, Bon-Ton and Nordstrom were laggards.
- The greenback has recovered from earlier losses against the European pairs as traders focused on emerging contagion fears out of Hungary, where the newly installed ruling party Fidesz warned that Hungary had a "slim chance to avoid a Greek situation." Rumors were circulating that the new government said the 2010 budget deficit would as much as 7%, nearly double the current 3.8% target. Dealers said today's flight to safety has ravaged the covered bond market, where almost $8.0B in securities been sold or are being marketed this week, more than double the prior week's total. The rise in covered bond sales contrasts with a decline in corporate debt issuance, which was $70B in May (the worst figure since 2003) from the $140B issued in April. EUR/USD is approaching the 1.2200 level after testing 1.23 during the European morning. EUR/CHF is back below the 1.41 handle.
- (US) Fed Chair Bernanke on small business needs - (IC) Iceland Q1 Current Account (ISK): no est v -13.0B prior - (US) Fed's Rosengren speaks on financial crisis - (MX) Mexico May IMEF Manufacturing Index: 54.2e v 54.6 prior; NoN Manufacturing index: 54.0e v 54.1 prior - (US) Fed's Hoenig speaks on banking issues
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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