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Thursday June 3, 2010 - 20:25:19 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Pre-Employment Trade

 

The Daily Forex View

GVI Forex Analysis 


Pre-Employment Trade

20:00 GMT- June 3  (global-view.com)  The focus early Thursday was on U.S. jobs data.  The ADP private employment data came in well within the normal range of error around street estimates. Of course we never know how good a predictor of non-farm payrolls the ADP private employment survey will be. Friday will be a complex data release as the markets will want to focus on the ex-census worker release rather than the headline data. Weekly jobless claims were disappointing again, but are  unrelated to the monthly data because they were taken on another date. They have run consistently disappointing all year.  

Rumbles that Hungary might be on a path similar to Greece weighed on the EURUSD, while equities fell as well. Some were also following weakness in the EURCHF cross as well. It appears FinMin Kan will become the next PM of Japan tomorrow. Kan has been a strong advocate of combating deflation and has favored a weaker JPY. Japan traditionally has been run by a strong entrenched bureaucracy. No major policy changes should be expected from the new leadership, although the government will keep pressure on the central bank to continue quantitative ease. 

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:03
EUR 1.2156 -85 JPY 112.63 -15 JPY 135.38 39
GBP 1.4612 -40 GBP 83.19 -35 CHF 168.99 -18
CHF 1.1565 19 CHF 1.4058 -75 CHF vs.    
JPY 92.65 52       JPY 80.11 32

The EURUSD is lower on the day and the GBPUSD is down. The EURGBP is even. Traders have been keeping a close eye on  European sovereign debt situation and on the threat of forex intervention in the EUR.

In the GBP the U.K. new government is weak. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.

The EURCHF is weaker. SNB intervention tactics have changed, as recently the SNB has taken a strong stand. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The SNB has set a EURCHF floor of 1.4000.

The USDJPY pair is up and the EURJPY cross is steady. The change in government in Japan is not expected to have a lasting impact. Japanese public finances are a worry. however JGB bonds are mostly owned by Japanese. The government wants a lower exchange rate and has warned the markets about the JPY. It also has been pressing the BOJ to promote growth. 

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:03
CAD 1.0414 28 AUD 0.8427 20 Gold 1205 -18.07
CNY 6.8293 -2 NZD 0.6832 19 WTI 74.55 1.00

The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). The commodity currencies are up. RBA monetary policy is steady. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25bps but sent dovish signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. Oil and gold are down. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in.

Far East equities closed mostly higher. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are down. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.36%, +1 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           20:03
NIK 9914 311 DAX 6055 73 DJIA 10246 48
HSI 19787 315 FTSE 5211 60 S&P 1102 9
SSEC 2553 -18 SMI 6419 0 NAS 2303 33
ASX 4486 105       TSE 11778 27

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Far East markets will see no major data on Friday. In Europe , Eurozone GDP data will be released.  In North America, U.S. and Canadian monthly employment data are due.  Also the Canadian I Ivey PMI is awaited.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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