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Thursday June 3, 2010 - 21:39:41 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (3 June 2010)

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2225 level and was capped around the $1.2325 level.  The common currency continues to suffer from a crisis of confidence and this negative sentiment is impacting financial institutions as well.  Eurozone banks deposited €320.4 billion in the European Central Bank’s 0.25% overnight deposit facility, up marginally from the previous day’s total and the highest level since the euro started trading in 1999.  Deposits have totaled more than €300 billion over the past five trading days.  Three-month U.S. Dollar Libor rose to 0.53781% today from 0.5375% yesterday and is near multi-month highs.  Eurozone banks are likely holding too much debt from highly-indebted and troubled eurozone countries and the price of capital is moving higher on the premise that some banks may be unable to pay borrowed capital back.  Ecofin head Juncker said Europe reacted too late to the Greek debt crisis but said the policies enacted are “good ones.” Talks remain ongoing about the creation of a single European ratings agency.  Data released in the eurozone today saw May PMI services improve to 56.2 while the May PMI composite survey improved to 56.4.  Also, EMU-16 April retail sales were off 1.2% m/m and 1.5% y/y.  Data to be released tomorrow include Q1 gross domestic product.  German data released today saw May PMI services rally to 54.8 while French May PMI services fell to 61.4.  Other French data saw the Q1 unemployment rate increase 4,000 while the Q1 ILO unemployment rate fell to 9.9.  In U.S. news, Kansas City Fed President Hoenig called for the federal funds target rate to increase to 1% “by the end of summer” and cited improvements in market conditions and the economic outlook.  Other Fed officials including Philadelphia Fed President Plosser, St. Louis Fed Presidents Bullard, and Dallas Fed President Fisher have also been on the bullish side in recent remarks that expressed concern about the Fed’s ongoing “extended period” language in its policy statement.  Data released in the U.S. today saw May ADP employment growth of 55,000 while Q1 non-farm productivity fell to +2.8% from the prior reading of +3.6% with unit labour costs higher at -1.3%.  Also, weekly initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 453,000 while continuing jobless claims moved higher to 4.666 million.  April factory orders growth decelerated to +1.2% and the May ISM services index was unchanged at 55.4.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2620 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥92.80 level and was supported around the ¥92.05 level.  Bank of Japan Policy Board member Suda warned “Stock and currency markets are very unstable, and as a result not only Europe but also Japan may see a negative impact on consumption and capital spending via a worsening of household and business sentiment.”  The ruling Democratic Party of Japan will select a new leader tomorrow following this week’s resignation of Prime Minister Hatoyama.  Japan will hold upper house elections in June.  Finance minister Kan is expected to win the top position.  BoJ Governor Shirakawa will visit Spit Korea from 4-6 June to attend the Group of Twenty meeting.  Data released in Japan overnight saw Q1 capital spending off 11.5%.  The Nikkei 225 stock gained 3.24% to close at ¥9,914.19.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥114.15 level and was supported around the ¥112.65 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥136.40 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥80.60 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8283 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8298. There are revised views that People’s Bank of China may lift its interest rate hikes this year to around 27bps. 


The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4620 level and was capped around the $1.4740 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw May Nationwide house prices up 0.5% m/m and 9.8% y/y while May PMI services ticked higher to 55.4.  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Posen warned the eurozone financial crisis could spread to the U.K. and U.S.  Bank of England Governor King this week said the system must seize the opportunity for reform and banks should not be permitted to be “too big to fail.”  King reiterated support for the BoE’s policy framework, reporting “Despite its volatility, inflation remains low by historic standards, and on track to meet the target in the medium term. The framework has proved resilient to the stress of the financial crisis.  It guided our monetary decisions going out into the crisis, and it will guide them coming out of it.”  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4220 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8375 level and was supported around the £0.8335 level.




The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1565 level and was supported around the CHF 1.1495 level.  There is increasing speculation again that Swiss National Bank may reduce its franc-selling intervention on account of the massive amount of market operations it has undertaken already this year.  SNB member Leuthard verbally intervened against the strong franc today.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the US$ 1.1420 level.  The euro lost ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4130 level while the British pound lost ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6875 level.


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