Friday June 4, 2010 - 03:43:03 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 04-Jun-2010 - 0340 GMT
Flat closing in the Dow yesterday at 10255.28 (+5.74). Assume market is waiting for release of the very crucial US non-farm Payroll data today. We need to see if the data comes in more than last month's +290K or not. A rise past 300K would be good. If not, the market might dip/ fall.
In Asia too, stock indices are near flat, either down marginally or up marginally. Expect the Sensex and Nifty also to be flat today.
Crude (74.44) bounced back from yesterday's low of 72.32 following the EIA's data release that showed an unexpected decrease in the US Crude and gasoline inventories. Crude has been ranged between the Support at 72 and the Resistance at 76 all through this week and the close today will have to be watched for, as it might play a significant role in the further direction of move in the coming weeks.
Gold (1206.90) has come off from yesterday's high of 1224 and is now trading just above 1200. As mentioned earlier a break below 1200 might increase the chances of further downmove towards 1270-50 which is a very significant Support region seen on the downside. However, the broader picture continues to remain bullish and we might expect a bounce back once again from 1270-50 region.
Sad, the Euro (1.2181) gets dunked back in every time it raises its head out of water to breathe. Look at the way it fell from a high near 1.2327 yesterday to a low near 1.2150 in the US session yesterday. The 1.2300-50 region becomes significant Resistance now. Dollar-Yen (92.70) continues to maintain its gains, but still has a crucial Resistance in the 93.30 region.
Virtually no movement in Dollar-Swiss (1.1541), which continues to trade sideways between 1.1490 and 1.1590. The Pound (1.4633) has been consoliding over the last two days, within an overall uptrend (since the 1.4227 low on 20-May) which can target 1.4785. The Aussie (0.8445) dipped to 0.8365 in the US session yesterday from an earlier high near 0.8523, and may be ranged between 0.85 on the upside and 0.8340 on the downside.
Perhaps the market will be quiet through the day today ahead of the all-important US non-farm Payroll data today.
In Asia, Dollar-Won is trading relatively weak near 1201.80 but may have Support near 1185. USD-SGD (1.4034) is consolidating within an overall uptrend. Support seen at 1.40. Dollar-Rupee may move up towards 46.80-47.00 today after closing near 46.69 yesterday.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.54%. The 2Y yield was unchanged at 0.81%, while the 10Y yield was up 3 bps to quote at 3.36%.
09:00 GMT EU GDP Q1 '10 1st Quarter
...Expected 0..2%...Previous 0.2%
12:00 GMT MAy CA Labour Force
...Expected 20.7K...Previous 108.7K
12:30 GMT May US NFP
...Expected 465K...Previous 290K
May Australia Trade Balance
... Actual A$ 0.13 Bln...Previous A$ -2.04 Bln
EU Retail Sales
... Actual -1.2%...Previous 0.5%
US ADP Emp
... Actual 55K...Previous 65K
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."