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Friday June 4, 2010 - 03:43:03 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 04-Jun-2010 - 0340 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Flat closing in the Dow yesterday at 10255.28 (+5.74). Assume market is waiting for release of the very crucial US non-farm Payroll data today. We need to see if the data comes in more than last month's +290K or not. A rise past 300K would be good. If not, the market might dip/ fall.

In Asia too, stock indices are near flat, either down marginally or up marginally. Expect the Sensex and Nifty also to be flat today.

COMMODITIES
Crude (74.44) bounced back from yesterday's low of 72.32 following the EIA's data release that showed an unexpected decrease in the US Crude and gasoline inventories. Crude has been ranged between the Support at 72 and the Resistance at 76 all through this week and the close today will have to be watched for, as it might play a significant role in the further direction of move in the coming weeks.

Gold (1206.90) has come off from yesterday's high of 1224 and is now trading just above 1200. As mentioned earlier a break below 1200 might increase the chances of further downmove towards 1270-50 which is a very significant Support region seen on the downside. However, the broader picture continues to remain bullish and we might expect a bounce back once again from 1270-50 region.


CURRENCIES
Sad, the Euro (1.2181) gets dunked back in every time it raises its head out of water to breathe. Look at the way it fell from a high near 1.2327 yesterday to a low near 1.2150 in the US session yesterday. The 1.2300-50 region becomes significant Resistance now. Dollar-Yen (92.70) continues to maintain its gains, but still has a crucial Resistance in the 93.30 region.

Virtually no movement in Dollar-Swiss (1.1541), which continues to trade sideways between 1.1490 and 1.1590. The Pound (1.4633) has been consoliding over the last two days, within an overall uptrend (since the 1.4227 low on 20-May) which can target 1.4785. The Aussie (0.8445) dipped to 0.8365 in the US session yesterday from an earlier high near 0.8523, and may be ranged between 0.85 on the upside and 0.8340 on the downside.

Perhaps the market will be quiet through the day today ahead of the all-important US non-farm Payroll data today.

In Asia, Dollar-Won is trading relatively weak near 1201.80 but may have Support near 1185. USD-SGD (1.4034) is consolidating within an overall uptrend. Support seen at 1.40. Dollar-Rupee may move up towards 46.80-47.00 today after closing near 46.69 yesterday.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.54%. The 2Y yield was unchanged at 0.81%, while the 10Y yield was up 3 bps to quote at 3.36%.


DATA TODAY
09:00 GMT EU GDP Q1 '10 1st Quarter
...Expected 0..2%...Previous 0.2%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/eugdp.shtml

12:00 GMT MAy CA Labour Force
...Expected 20.7K...Previous 108.7K

12:30 GMT May US NFP
...Expected 465K...Previous 290K
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usnfp.shtml


DATA YESTERDAY
May Australia Trade Balance
... Actual A$ 0.13 Bln...Previous A$ -2.04 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/autrbal.shtml

EU Retail Sales
... Actual -1.2%...Previous 0.5%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/euretail.shtml

US ADP Emp
... Actual 55K...Previous 65K
 

 

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