Pre-Report Profit-Taking Drives U.S. Equity Markets Lower
U.S. Equity markets are trading lower this morning after an
overnight surge fizzled ahead of this morningâ€™s employment report. The June
E-mini S&P 500 is selling off sharply after the breakout above last weekâ€™s
high at 1106.75 failed to attract new buyers.
The June E-mini S&P 500 was on its high early this
morning as some investors began to tip their hand as to which side they were
leaning toward ahead of this morningâ€™s U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report. Scared
money apparently was in the market because the lack of follow-through to the
upside following a breakout above 1106.75 triggered a sudden reversal.
The main trend on the daily chart turned up on the move
through the last swing high at 1106.75 which means that buyers will be likely
waiting to get long on the current weakness taking place in the market ahead of
the key economic number. Often traders decide to stand aside ahead of key
reports to avoid the volatility. After the wildness settles down, watch to see
if investors re-enter the market in the direction of the main trend.
Preliminary jobs data from the ADP Corp. and this weekâ€™s
initial claims data support a rise in the number of jobs created. A Reuters
poll pegged a consensus forecast of U.S. payrolls data at 513,000 jobs
created in March. Some analysts are looking for an increase of 615,000 while
President Obama chimed in by saying the report would show strong growth.
Speculators are supporting the stock market because of
expectations that the jobs report would show the labor market stabilizing. This
means that the fundamentals are getting much stronger which will bring the Fed
closer to raising interest rates. Investors like the odds that the Fed will
raise before the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
The biggest concern that traders face today is the
possibility that analysts overshot the jobs number. With the bar set extremely
high at 513,000 new jobs created, it is possible that the actual data will fall
short of expectations. If this occurs, then look for the stock market to weaken
and Treasury Bonds to gain.
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