Monday June 7, 2010 - 03:40:50 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 07-Jun-2010 - 0338 GMT
Bloodbath in Asian equities today, following on from Friday's close below 10000 on the Dow. The Nikkei (9504) is down 4%, Shanghai (2517) is down 1.43%. All markets, except New Zealand (which is up 0.2%) are trading lower by -0.7% to 4.0%. Average loss is in the region of 2.5-3.5%.
The Dow is expected to fall towards 9460 in the coming days. That's another 4.7% from Friday's close at 9931.97. Take a look at
The Sensex had closed high at 17117.69 on Friday, but may fall back today. Take a look at
Crude (70.06) fell sharply breaking below the Support at 72 on Firday. The disappointing US NFP data release on Friday added further pressure to the global economic recovery concerns and pulled down the price wiping out all the gains witnessed on thursday.While below 72, there are good chances of further dip to 68-65 in the coming days.
Gold (1218.30) has bounced back from Friday's low of 1196.90. Failure to see a strong break below 1200 is keeping up the overall bullish sentiment intact. However, it is to be noted that a strong break above 1230 was not seen, though Gold is continuing to trade above 1200 over the last couple of weeks. If 1230 continues to hold we might expect a break below 1200 and a see a downmove towards 1170-50. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Euro (1.1910) has fallen further in early Asian today. Sentiment and charts are both very bearish. Dollar-Yen (91.15) is also trading lower, adding to the bearish sentiment. The Aussie (0.8128) has plunged to a low of 0.8095 so far today. Long-term prospects are bearish.
Dollar-Swiss (1.1665) has shot up, but may have Resistance near 1.1765 on the Weekly chart. The Pound (1.4428) had also crashed on Friday and can fall further towards 1.43.
In Asia, Dollar-Won has shot up to 1237.30 and is likely to target 1250-1275 in the coming days. USD-SGD (1.4182) has been rising for the last three days and should target 1.43 in the coming days. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 46.84 on Friday, but is likely to move up to at least 47.20 today, possibly higher.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.54%. The 2Y and 10Y yields fell sharply by 10 bps and 19 bps each to quote at 0.71% and 3.17% respectively. The fear about the Euro zone's debt crisis and the concerns about the global economic recovery is continuing to retain the downside pressure on the yields which is in a strong downtrend since April-2010. To see the USD Yields graph click on the following link:
The BOE and ECB meeting is scheduled for this Thursday (10-Jun-10).
No Major data release today.
EU GDP Q1 '10 1st Quarter
...Actual 0..2%...Previous 0.2%
May CA Labour Force
...Actual 24.7K...Previous 108.7K
May US NFP
...Actual 431K...Previous 290K
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