Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (7 June 2010)
The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1875
level and was capped around the $1.1990 level.The common currency sank further, plumbing loans not seen since March
2006.Group of Twenty officials convened
in Busan, South Korea over the weekend and European officials backpedaled away
from the assertion that Hungary faces a ‚Äúgrave‚ÄĚ fiscal crisis.The pair failed to sustain some brief
intraday gains earned after it was reported German April factory orders were up
2.8% m/m and off 29.6% y/y.German data
to be released tomorrow include April trade numbers and current account figures
along with April industrial production.Eurozone
data released today saw the EMU-16 Sentix investor confidence index improve to
-4.1 from the prior reading of -6.4.Eurogroup
Chairman Juncker reported eurozone budgets will remain ‚Äúneutral‚ÄĚ in 2010 and
become ‚Äúclearly restrictive in 2011‚ÄĚ when the economic recovery is
expected.Europe is moving ahead with
deficit cuts despite pleas from the U.S. and elsewere for ‚Äústronger domestic
demand growth‚ÄĚ in countries with trade surpluses like Germany.Today, Germany announced a four-year ‚ā¨80
billion package of spending cuts and tax increases and implored other eurozone
member states to follow suit.The European
Commission now estimates the eurozone economy will expand 2.5% next year.European officials signed into law a eurozone
rescue package totaling ‚ā¨440 billion in national guarantees.The financial backstop is the largest
component of a ‚ā¨750 billion package designed to combat the sovereign credit
crisis.In U.S. news, data released today saw April consumer credit reverse
course and climb US$ 1.0 billion, up from a downwardly revised March print of ‚ÄďUS$
5.4 billion.Fed Vice Chairman nominee
Yellen reported ‚Äúsignificant headwinds to stability remain.‚ÄĚYellen is known to be in favour of an
inflation target.Euro offers are
cited around the US$ 1.2330 level.
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•92.00 figure and was supported around
the ¬•90.95 level. Vice finance minister
Noda may soon become Japan‚Äôs ninth finance minister in four years and he would
likely support plans for spending cuts.Japan‚Äôs central government debt load reached the equivalent of US$ 9.7
trillion at the end of March, compared with the U.S. outstanding balance of US$
8.3 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities.Noda said it is important to ‚Äúmap out a plan to restore fiscal health‚ÄĚ
so that long-term yields do not ‚Äújump.‚ÄĚ Noda is expect to unveil the government‚Äôs
mid-term fiscal strategy plan before Group of Twenty officials convene in
Toronto later this year.The yen
continues to remain supported on account of heightened global risk aversion,
primarily on account of the dire situation involving European sovereign
credit.Japanese business lobby
Keinanren verbally intervened against the climbing yen overnight.Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa this weekend
reported ‚ÄúI felt that the perception that Japan‚Äôs economic recovery is
considerably stronger than initially expected is spreading among other nations‚Ä¶The
Bank of Japan has made it clear its intention to keep the extremely
accommodative monetary environment and it‚Äôs making efforts for further
expansion of domestic demand.‚ÄĚ Many data
will be released in Japan tonight including the Q3 manpower survey, April
current account, April trade balance, and May bank lending.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 3.84% to
close at ¬•9,520.80.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency
tested bids around the ¬•108.05 level and was capped around the ¬•110.15 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers
around the ¬•133.40 level while the Swiss
franc moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¬•77.95 level.
In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8324 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8288. Data to be released in China tonight include
the Q3 manpower survey.People‚Äôs Bank of
China Governor Zhou reported domestic economic conditions will dictate when
China exits its monetary stimulus policies.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.4515 level and was supported around the $1.4385 level. British Chamber of Commerce called on Bank of
England to ‚Äúpersevere with expansionary policies‚Ä¶The threat of a double-dip
recession is particularly acute at this early stage of the upturn, and the
precarious eurozone situation, alongside upheavals in global financial markets,
increase risks to the U.K.‚ÄĚBank of
England‚Äôs monetary policy decision will be released on Thursday.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4220
level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8240 level and was capped around the ¬£0.8300
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.1670 level and was supported around the CHF 1.1585 level. Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand last
week said ‚ÄúThere‚Äôs a consensus that the financial system needs to become more
resilient.It‚Äôs absolutely decisive that
the regulatory focus remains on capital, liquidity, and a diffusion of the
too-big-to-fail problem.‚ÄĚThere is
increasing speculation again that Swiss National Bank may reduce its
franc-selling intervention on account of the massive amount of market
operations it has undertaken already this year.SNB member Leuthard verbally intervened against the strong franc last
week.U.S. dollar bids are cited around
the US$ 1.1420 level.The euro gained ground vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3940 level
while the British pound gained ground
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6885 level.
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