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Monday June 7, 2010 - 21:41:18 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (7 June 2010)

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1875 level and was capped around the $1.1990 level.  The common currency sank further, plumbing loans not seen since March 2006.  Group of Twenty officials convened in Busan, South Korea over the weekend and European officials backpedaled away from the assertion that Hungary faces a “grave” fiscal crisis.  The pair failed to sustain some brief intraday gains earned after it was reported German April factory orders were up 2.8% m/m and off 29.6% y/y.  German data to be released tomorrow include April trade numbers and current account figures along with April industrial production.  Eurozone data released today saw the EMU-16 Sentix investor confidence index improve to -4.1 from the prior reading of -6.4.  Eurogroup Chairman Juncker reported eurozone budgets will remain “neutral” in 2010 and become “clearly restrictive in 2011” when the economic recovery is expected.  Europe is moving ahead with deficit cuts despite pleas from the U.S. and elsewere for “stronger domestic demand growth” in countries with trade surpluses like Germany.  Today, Germany announced a four-year €80 billion package of spending cuts and tax increases and implored other eurozone member states to follow suit.  The European Commission now estimates the eurozone economy will expand 2.5% next year.  European officials signed into law a eurozone rescue package totaling €440 billion in national guarantees.  The financial backstop is the largest component of a €750 billion package designed to combat the sovereign credit crisis.  In U.S. news, data released today saw April consumer credit reverse course and climb US$ 1.0 billion, up from a downwardly revised March print of –US$ 5.4 billion.  Fed Vice Chairman nominee Yellen reported “significant headwinds to stability remain.”  Yellen is known to be in favour of an inflation target.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2330 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥92.00 figure and was supported around the ¥90.95 level.  Vice finance minister Noda may soon become Japan’s ninth finance minister in four years and he would likely support plans for spending cuts.  Japan’s central government debt load reached the equivalent of US$ 9.7 trillion at the end of March, compared with the U.S. outstanding balance of US$ 8.3 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities.  Noda said it is important to “map out a plan to restore fiscal health” so that long-term yields do not “jump.” Noda is expect to unveil the government’s mid-term fiscal strategy plan before Group of Twenty officials convene in Toronto later this year.  The yen continues to remain supported on account of heightened global risk aversion, primarily on account of the dire situation involving European sovereign credit.  Japanese business lobby Keinanren verbally intervened against the climbing yen overnight.  Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa this weekend reported “I felt that the perception that Japan’s economic recovery is considerably stronger than initially expected is spreading among other nations…The Bank of Japan has made it clear its intention to keep the extremely accommodative monetary environment and it’s making efforts for further expansion of domestic demand.”  Many data will be released in Japan tonight including the Q3 manpower survey, April current account, April trade balance, and May bank lending.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 3.84% to close at ¥9,520.80.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥108.05 level and was capped around the ¥110.15 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥133.40 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥77.95 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8324 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8288.  Data to be released in China tonight include the Q3 manpower survey.  People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou reported domestic economic conditions will dictate when China exits its monetary stimulus policies. 


The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.4515 level and was supported around the $1.4385 level.  British Chamber of Commerce called on Bank of England to “persevere with expansionary policies…The threat of a double-dip recession is particularly acute at this early stage of the upturn, and the precarious eurozone situation, alongside upheavals in global financial markets, increase risks to the U.K.”  Bank of England’s monetary policy decision will be released on Thursday.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4220 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8240 level and was capped around the £0.8300 figure.





The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1670 level and was supported around the CHF 1.1585 level.  Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand last week said “There’s a consensus that the financial system needs to become more resilient.  It’s absolutely decisive that the regulatory focus remains on capital, liquidity, and a diffusion of the too-big-to-fail problem.”  There is increasing speculation again that Swiss National Bank may reduce its franc-selling intervention on account of the massive amount of market operations it has undertaken already this year.  SNB member Leuthard verbally intervened against the strong franc last week.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the US$ 1.1420 level.  The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3940 level while the British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6885 level.


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