Wednesday June 9, 2010 - 04:13:52 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 09-Jun-2010 - 0350 GMT
The US Equities were up yesterday. The Dow (9939.98) was up 1.26% and the Nasdaq (2170.57) was down 0.15%. The Markets were up on account of increase in Crude prices coupled with confidence among US Small Businesses reaching highest levels since September, 2008. The Dow has the risk of falling towards 9460 in the coming weeks.
The Asians are weak today. The Nikkei (9444.15, down 0.98%) may fall further towards 9000 in the coming days, the Shanghai (2514.28, flat) has a risk of falling towards 2350 while below 2600 in the coming weeeks and the Hang Seng (19424.26) is down 0.33%. In India, the Sensex (16617.10) and the Nifty (4987.10) were down about 1% yesterday. The Sensex may fall towards 16000 in the coming days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4393.80) is down 0.17% today.
Crude (72.49) has bounced back breaking above 72. The expectation of fall in US Crude inventories and a slight bounce in Euro supported the price rise. As mentioned earlier 76 is a very significant Resistance level to watch for. A strong break above 76 will have to be seen to wipe out the downside pressure. The OPEC's oil outlook and the US Crude inventory data are due today. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1237.40) has risen as expected and recorded a high of 1252.10 yesterday. However, it has come off from its high and is now trading below 1240. Resistance is seen at 1250-70 region which might hold for some time. A weekly close above 1250 will turn the commodity extremely bullish. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Euro (1.1949) is ranged between 1.19-20 within the overall downtrend. Remember 1.1880 is the 200-Month-MA and strong break below it might trigger fresh dip towards 1.1680-50 in the coming days. Dollar-Yen (91.33) is continuing to trade narrowly between 91-92. The 200-DMA (90.93) is a significant Support level to watch for. The Euro-Yen Cross (109.16) is ranged between 108-110 within its overall downtrend.
The Pound (1.4435) is looking mixed after Friday's sharp fall. Resistance is seen at 1.4500-50 region and if it holds we might see further dip to 1.42-41. Aussie (0.8230) has bounced back and we might look for a range of 0.8100-0.8350 for some time within the overall downtrend. Dollar-Swiss (1.1525) has come off from yesterday's high of 1.1642. Support is seen at 1.1500-1.1480 region which is expected to hold.
In Asia, the Korean-Won continues to remain weak and is now trading near 1240. USD-SGD is trading near 1.4150 and might see 1.43-44 in the coming days. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.9250/9350 yesterday.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchaged at 0.54%. The 2Y yield was down 1 bps to quote at 0.73% and 10Y yield was up by 1 bps to quote at 3.19%.
The BOE and ECB meetings on interest rate decisions are scheduled for tomorrow (10-Jun-10).
00:01 GMT UK Cons Conf
...Expected 78...Previous 74
08:30 GMT UK May Trade Balance
...Expected $ -7.0 Bln...Previous $ -7.5 Bln
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