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Wednesday June 9, 2010 - 13:11:49 GMT
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Appetite for Risk, New Debt Auction Weakens Treasury Bonds

T-Bonds are trading weaker this morning because of the firming equity markets and the $21 billion U.S. Treasury debt sale. There is also rising speculation that the Fed may be preparing to raise interest rates. On June 7th, Fed Chairman Bernanke said the Fed will hike before the economy returns to full employment. This statement seemed to have stopped the rally this week as traders pared long positions.


September Treasury Bonds held steady and inside of the previous day’s range on Tuesday, this despite the strong short-covering rally in equities. The recent surge in the T-Bonds was triggered by a flight-to-safety rally. The inability to reach the last main top at 126’05 could be a sign of a secondary lower top formation. A break back under a 50% price level at 124’08 will be the first sign of weakness and should trigger a break to the .618 price at 123’22. A failure to hold this price level will be a bearish sign.


August Gold posted a new high for the year on Tuesday, trading through the recent top at 1251.40 to 1254.50.  The lack of follow-through to the upside could be a sign of profit-taking after prices reached overbought levels. The current leg of this rally is $1198.10 to $1254.50. Look for a possible pull-back to $1226.30 to $1219.70.


Gold doesn’t appear to be too sensitive to the movement of the Dollar, but should react to the Euro. The recent buying spree appears to be connected to talk of the possible collapse in the Euro. A stronger Dollar should lead speculators to pare back long positions. Gold may also be sensitive to the movement in equities. Competition for investment Dollars could produce strong volatility. A strong rally in equities could pressure gold.


The divergence between the Euro and Crude Oil is a sign of a possible bottom in September Crude Oil. The short-term range is 69.62 to 77.84. This range has created a retracement zone at 73.64 to 72.69. Holding this retracement zone sets up the possibility of a short-covering rally over the near-term. A trade through 77.84 will turn the main trend to up.


The Euro is trading slightly better while the British Pound is recovering most of yesterday’s losses. Commodity-linked currencies are trading higher in the Pacific Rim, but the Canadian Dollar is under pressure.


News that China’s exports were up as well as new loans is helping to underpin the Australian Dollar. Traders are supporting the New Zealand Dollar in anticipation of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Investors feel that the RBNZ is poised to initiate a tighter monetary policy like the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada because of signs the economy is recovering.


U.S. stocks are expected to open slightly better this morning. The markets traded sideways-to-lower overnight, but shortly before the New York opening are challenging yesterday’s high. Risk sentiment seems to be turning positive which should help increase demand for higher yielding assets today.


U.S. equity markets posted a strong recovery late in the trading session on Tuesday, boosted by a turnaround in oil stocks and commodities. Stocks were directionless most of the day as traders digested commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke and weighed risk concerns from Europe.


Technically the June E-mini S&P 500 posted a daily closing price reversal. The 1041.25 low was close to the recent bottom at 1036.75, making it appear on the charts as if a secondary higher bottom may be forming. A trade through 1063.25 will confirm the reversal bottom and could trigger a short-covering rally to 1074.50 to 1082.25 over the next 2 to 3 days. 1045.00 will be a key pivot number until June 14th. A close under this price could trigger the start of a break to 1004.00 by June 23rd.



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