***Economic data*** - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 4th: -12.2% v 0.9% prior - (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 1.6% v 1.3%e - (HU) Hungary Central Bank's Minutes: Voted 5 to 2 to maintain rates at 5.25% - (BR) Brazil May IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.2%e - (BE) Belgium Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1% prior Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0% prior - (US) Apr Wholesale Inventories: 0.45 v 0.5%e - (MX) Mexico May Consumer Prices M/M: -0.6% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.0%e; Core CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e - (MX) Mexico Apr Final Trade Balance: $197.6M v $197.4M prior - (RU) Russia Apr Trade Balance: $13.0B v $14.6Be; Exports: $32.0B v $34.1Be; Imports: $19.1B v $19.3Be - 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly energy inventories: Crude: -1.83M v -1Me; Gasoline: flat v -250Ke; Distillate: +1.84M v +500Ke; Utilization: 89.1% v 87.5%
- Data out of China overnight is dispelling fears about the state of the global economy buoying risk appetite this morning. A senior Chinese government official reportedly stated that China's May exports would be up 50% over last year's level (estimates are around +32%), strengthening arguments that the selloff over the last several days has been overdone.US futures rose modestly before the bell, extending yesterday's late session rally, and traders have sustained these equity gains in the first hour and a half of trading. Fed Chairman Bernanke is testifying before the House Budget Committee. Bernanke warned that significant restraints remain on the pace of the US recovery and also noted that a double dip "can never be ruled out." The euro has strengthened on a groundswell of positive news, sending EUR/USD above the1.20 level, while front-month crude rallying $2.25 to inch back towards $75. Gold and Treasuries are predictably losing ground on the fresh risk appetite, with the front month gold contract backing away from yesterday's all time highs. The 10-year yield is drifting back up towards 3.25% ahead of this afternoon's reopening.
- There has been some good news in the semi space since yesterday's close. In its mid quarter update, Texas Instruments tightened up its Q2 guidance and stated that orders look strong and are still rising in the quarter, also noting that the company has not seen any change in European demand. TXI is up 2%. At a tech conference earlier, Applied Materials' CEO said the semiconductor market is recovering thanks to demand for tablet computers and warned there may not be enough capacity in the industry to meet this wave of demand.
- In other equity news, heavy truck manufacturer Navistar reported very strong earnings and reaffirmed its 2010 forecast. Executives said that Navistar's engine business has started to recover and margins are improving on higher order levels. NAV is around even. Electronic medical records firm Eclipsys is combining with Allscripts in an all-stock deal worth around $1.1B.
- The impressive China data loosed overnight has drawn immediate political fire in the US. Senator Schumer (D-NY) commented that the Treasury's failure to cite China as a currency manipulator was disappointing and that the Senate would vote to censure (or worse) China for its currency policies in two weeks. Senator Stabenow (D-MI) stated that ere would be enough votes in Senate to bring a China currency bill to the floor for ultimate approval. EUR/USD regained a foothold above the 1.20 handle on the back of rising risk appetite with Mid East names behind the buying in the session. Dealers also noted with interest of a Washington Post article that China was looking to invest heavily in Greece.
***Looking Ahead*** - 12:00 (US) Fed's Sack -13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $25B in 5-year notes - 14:00 US Fed's Beige Book - 16:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke in Richmond - 16:00 (GE) German Chancellor Merkel speech on economy at CDU economic forum - 17:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations (almost 90%) is for the Official Cash Rate to be raised by 25bps to 2.75%. The analyst estimates range from unchanged to 25bps rate increase. - (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations (over 90%) for the COPOM to raise the SELIC Target by 75bps to 10.25%. The analyst estimates range from 50bps to 100bps increase.
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