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Wednesday June 9, 2010 - 20:11:29 GMT
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E-mini S&P Pulls Back after Testing 1074.50 Retracement Level

The E-mini S&P 500 is pulling back after testing a short-term retracement level at 1074.50. Increased demand for higher risk assets helped drive up the equity markets into the mid-session, but comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke and Beige Book commentary encouraged investors to take profits, driving the indices off their highs.

The indices are turning negative late in the session. This weakness seems to be corresponding with a sharp break in commodity-linked currencies and the Euro.

Technically the June E-mini S&P 500 posted a daily closing price reversal. The 1041.25 low was close to the recent bottom at 1036.75, making it appear on the charts as if a secondary higher bottom may be forming. The trade through 1063.25 confirmed the reversal bottom, triggering a short-covering rally to 1074.50 to 1082.25. 1045.00 will be a key pivot number until June 14th. A close under this price could trigger the start of a break to 1004.00 by June 23rd.

September Treasury Bonds are making a recovery due to the weakness in the equity markets. Earlier today, the T-Bonds were trading weaker because of the stronger equity markets and today’s $21 billion U.S. Treasury Note debt sale. There is also rising speculation that the Fed may be preparing to raise interest rates. On June 7th, Fed Chairman Bernanke said the Fed will hike before the economy returns to full employment. This statement seemed to have stopped the rally this week as traders pared long positions.

Technically, the T-Bonds found support at a 50% level at 123’22 before the late session break in U.S. equity markets helped pare losses. This afternoon the Treasury reported that demand for its 10-Year Treasury Notes was about average.

August Gold traded sharply lower earlier in the trading session. Investors took profits after the recent run-up because of greater demand for equity prices. Technically this market stopped inside a retracement zone at $1226.30 to $1219.70. A late session break in stocks is helping gold to pare earlier session losses.

Increased appetite for risky assets helped drive September Crude Oil higher this morning. The short-term range is 69.62 to 77.84. This range created a retracement zone at 73.64 to 72.69. Holding this retracement zone helped trigger today’s short-covering rally. A trade through 77.84 will turn the main trend to up.

Fundamentally, higher stock prices helped underpin crude oil this morning. Additional support came from a weekly report showing that inventories had dropped more than expected.

Stronger demand for higher risk assets and slight optimism about Euro Zone finances are helping to boost the June Euro at the mid-session. Earlier this morning, the Euro reached a high of 1.2072 before comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke and the results of the Fed Beige book strengthened the Dollar.

Higher equity and crude oil markets helped drive up demand for riskier assets. This strength spilled over to the Euro. In addition, traders were a little more optimistic about the survivability of the Euro after the European Union finalized its rescue plan. Although sovereign debt issues remain the major concern, short traders felt it was necessary to pare positions on this news.

Finally, the Dollar pared losses against the Euro after the Fed’s Beige book indicated that the economy was improving mainly on rising consumer spending although new concerns have been raised about the possibility of a double-dip recession because of Euro Zone problems and the oil spill. The Dollar reached its bottom against the Euro after Bernanke said the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand fiscal tightening by the Fed.

Technically the Euro is still in a downtrend, but the charts indicate there is room to the upside. Recently hedge funds and large speculators have been shying away from selling weakness and have been more comfortable with selling retracements. Watch for renewed selling pressure once the Euro completes its retracement to 1.2164 to 1.2233.


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