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Wednesday June 9, 2010 - 23:10:27 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (9 June 2010)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2070 level and was supported around the $1.1925 level.  The common currency was unable to retain most of its intraday gains, however, as dealers were loath to hold onto too much euro risk ahead of the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow.  Some dealers believe the ECB could announce an increase in expansionary policies tomorrow, possibly including a new six-month refinancing operation and more covered-bond purchases.  Global investors are now discounting about a 73% chance that Greece will default on its debt. ECB member Weber said there is “no alternative” to German fiscal tightening.  In U.S. news, data released today saw MBA mortgage applications decrease 12.2% while wholesale inventories were up 0.4%.  The Federal Reserve’s June Beige Book was released today and it reported economic activity improved in all twelve Fed districts in April and May for the the first time in more than two years.  The Fed characterized the pace of growth as “modest.”  The Federal Open Market Committee will convene in two weeks to discuss monetary policy and is not expected to alter its policy stance significantly.  Fed Chairman Bernanke today testified final private demand is not as strong as required and added the Fed may need to expand its policy further on account of the European debt crisis. The Fed noted employment levels “edged up” in most areas and said consumer spending “generally increased.”  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2330 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥91.05 level and was capped around the ¥91.65 level.  Traders were loath to take on too much risk in higher-yielding currencies given ongoing market volatility.    New finance minister Noda reported “The Bank of Japan has taken steps based on its understanding of price stability as (inflation of above) zero to 2 per cent – with a median at 1 per cent – which I think is reasonable.  Prime Minister Kan’s view is that we should achieve above 1 per cent (inflation).  I share his view but that is not to advocate inflation targeting.”  Data released in Japan overnight sae April machine orders increase 4.0% m/m and 9.4% y/y.  Data to be released tonight include Q1 gross domestic product.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.04% to close at ¥9,439.13.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥108.85 level and was capped around the ¥110.60 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥133.75 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥80.15 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8280 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8296. People’s Bank of China this week warned Chinese economic growth will continue to be impacted by global problems and said final domestic private demand is still not “solid.” PBoC noted an “appropriately loose” monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy will continue. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange warned China is considering controls on yuan forward transactions to slow investors from speculating when the central bank will end its peg to the U.S. dollar. 

£

The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.4605 level and was supported around the $1.4395 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw the April visible trade balance print at -£7.279 billion while the total trade deficit widened to -£3.263 billion.  Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow and to keep its asset purchase target unchanged at £200 billion.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4220 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8240 level and was capped around the £0.8285 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.1415 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1555 level.  Data released in Switzerland this week saw the May unemployment rate remain unchanged at 4.0% while May consumer price inflation was off 0.1% m/m and up 1.1% y/y.  There was speculation yesterday that the Swiss National Bank bought euro for francs in an intervention after the London close.  Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand last week said “There’s a consensus that the financial system needs to become more resilient.  It’s absolutely decisive that the regulatory focus remains on capital, liquidity, and a diffusion of the too-big-to-fail problem.”  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the US$ 1.1310 level.  The euro lost ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3730 level while the British pound lost ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6695 level.

 

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