Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (9 June 2010)
The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2070
level and was supported around the $1.1925 level.The common currency was unable to retain most
of its intraday gains, however, as dealers were loath to hold onto too much
euro risk ahead of the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow.Some dealers believe the ECB could announce
an increase in expansionary policies tomorrow, possibly including a new
six-month refinancing operation and more covered-bond purchases.Global investors are now discounting about a
73% chance that Greece will default on its debt. ECB member Weber said there is
‚Äúno alternative‚ÄĚ to German fiscal tightening.In U.S. news, data released
today saw MBA mortgage applications decrease 12.2% while wholesale inventories
were up 0.4%.The Federal Reserve‚Äôs June
Beige Book was released today and it reported economic activity improved in all
twelve Fed districts in April and May for the the first time in more than two
years.The Fed characterized the pace of
growth as ‚Äúmodest.‚ÄĚThe Federal Open
Market Committee will convene in two weeks to discuss monetary policy and is
not expected to alter its policy stance significantly.Fed Chairman Bernanke today testified final
private demand is not as strong as required and added the Fed may need to expand
its policy further on account of the European debt crisis. The Fed noted
employment levels ‚Äúedged up‚ÄĚ in most areas and said consumer spending ‚Äúgenerally
increased.‚ÄĚEuro offers are cited
around the US$ 1.2330 level.
The yen appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested bids around the ¬•91.05 level and was capped around
the ¬•91.65 level. Traders were loath to
take on too much risk in higher-yielding currencies given ongoing market
volatility.New finance minister Noda reported ‚ÄúThe Bank
of Japan has taken steps based on its understanding of price stability as
(inflation of above) zero to 2 per cent ‚Äď with a median at 1 per cent ‚Äď which I
think is reasonable.Prime Minister Kan‚Äôs
view is that we should achieve above 1 per cent (inflation).I share his view but that is not to advocate
inflation targeting.‚ÄĚData released in
Japan overnight sae April machine orders increase 4.0% m/m and 9.4% y/y.Data to be released tonight include Q1 gross
domestic product.The Nikkei 225 stock index
lost 1.04% to close at ¬•9,439.13.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen
as the single currency tested bids around the ¬•108.85 level and was capped around
the ¬•110.60 level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested
offers around the ¬•133.75 level while the
Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•80.15
level. In Chinese news, the U.S.
dollar depreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY
6.8280 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8296. People‚Äôs Bank of
China this week warned Chinese economic growth will continue to be impacted by
global problems and said final domestic private demand is still not ‚Äúsolid.‚ÄĚ
PBoC noted an ‚Äúappropriately loose‚ÄĚ monetary policy and a proactive fiscal
policy will continue. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange warned China
is considering controls on yuan forward transactions to slow investors from
speculating when the central bank will end its peg to the U.S. dollar.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.4605 level and was supported around the $1.4395 level. Data
released in the U.K. today saw the April visible trade balance print at -¬£7.279
billion while the total trade deficit widened to -¬£3.263 billion.Bank of England‚Äôs Monetary Policy Committee
is expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow and to keep its asset purchase
target unchanged at ¬£200 billion.Cable
bids are cited around the US$ 1.4220 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis
the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8240 level
and was capped around the ¬£0.8285 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.1415 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1555 level. Data released in Switzerland this week saw the
May unemployment rate remain unchanged at 4.0% while May consumer price
inflation was off 0.1% m/m and up 1.1% y/y.There was speculation yesterday that the Swiss National Bank bought euro
for francs in an intervention after the London close.Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand last
week said ‚ÄúThere‚Äôs a consensus that the financial system needs to become more
resilient.It‚Äôs absolutely decisive that
the regulatory focus remains on capital, liquidity, and a diffusion of the
too-big-to-fail problem.‚ÄĚU.S. dollar
bids are cited around the US$ 1.1310 level.The euro lost ground
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3730
level while the British pound lost
ground vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6695
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
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15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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