Thursday June 10, 2010 - 03:40:50 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 10-Jun-2010 - 0338 GMT
The US Equities were down yesterday. The Dow (9899.25) was down 0.41% and the Nasdaq (2158.85) was down 0.54%. The Markets were down as the energy sector fell over concerns of BP, which slipped 16% yesterday. The Dow may fall to 9460 in the coming weeks.
The Asians are weak today. The Nikkei (9463.63, up 0.63%) may fall towards 9000 in the coming days, the Shanghai (2560.78, down 0.89%) has a risk of falling towards 2350 while below 2600 in the coming weeks and the Hang Seng (19596.13) is down 0.13%. In India, the Sensex (16657.89) and the Nifty (5000.30) were up about 0.25% yesterday. The Sensex may fall towards 16000 in the coming days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4430.80) is up 0.64% today.
Crude (73.94) is continuing to trade higher. Reports on increase in China's exports and EIA's data release showing a draw down in US Crude inventories supported the price rise yesterday. However, as mentioned earlier 76 is a very significant Resistance level to watch for. A strong break above 76 will have to be seen to wipe out the downside pressure. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1231.60) has come off from Tuesday's high of 1252.10. The Resistance at 1250-70 region mentioned earlier is holding as expected. While below 1250, we might see some dip towards 1220-10 in the coming days. However, the broader picture is bullish and every dip can be considered as a good buying opportunity. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Slight bounce back following the news on China's export growth which has eased the recovery concerns a bit. But the broader trend is still intact all over. Euro (1.1977) has come off from its high of 1.2073 . The overall downtrend is intact with immediate resistance at 1.2061 (8-DMA). Dollar-Yen is retaining the range 91-92. But it is looking weak with a descending triangle seen on the 4-Hr char which might pull it down towards 90.50-00. Euro-Yen Cross (109.21) has come off from its high of 110.59 and keeping up the overall bearish sentiment intact.
The Pound (1.4550) has bounced back sharply. While above 1.45, there are good chances if further rise towards 1.4600-30 today. Aussie (0.8336) is keeping up its upside momentum. The immediate Resistance at 0.8360 and the next Resistance at 0.8413 (21-DMA) might resist further upmove for some time. Dollar-Swiss (1.1476) is trading below the 21-DMA (1.1509). While below 1.15, we might see a test of the Support at 1.1400-1350 region.
In Asia, the Korean-Won has weakend further and is trading near 1268. USD-SGD is trading near 1.1448. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 47.02/03 yesterday.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchaged at 0.54%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were unchanged to quote at 0.73% and 3.19% respectively.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Raised its Cash Rate by 25 bps to 2.75% today.
The BOE and ECB meetings on interest rate decisions are scheduled for today.
JP GDP Q4'10 (2nd Pre)
...Actual 1.2%...Previous 1.2%
May Australia Labour Force
...Actual 26.9 K...Previous 35.3K
11:00 GMT BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
11:45 GMT E-15 ECB Announcement
...Expected 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
UK May Trade Balance
...Actual $ -7.3 Bln...Previous $ -7.5 Bln
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