The Dollar rose against the Euro late in the trading session after the
release of the Fedâ€™s Beige Book. The business survey showed subdued U.S. economic
growth which led speculators to believe the Fed wonâ€™t be raising interest rates
soon despite what investors had earlier interpreted from Chairman Bernankeâ€™s
Some traders also attributed the break to position evening ahead of the
European Central Bankâ€™s policy meeting on Thursday. Although the ECB is
expected to leave interest rates unchanged, investors are worried about its
statement and the post-meeting comments from ECB President Trichet. The
statement is expected to contain bearish talk about the near-term growth of the
Euro Zone economy. Trichet is expected, however, to sound more upbeat as he
tries to unite the Euro Zone nations.
From a technical perspective, the inability to hold above the 1.20
psychological support encouraged weak longs to throw in the towel, triggering a
hard break into the close.
Stronger demand for higher risk assets and slight optimism about Euro Zone
finances helped to boost the EUR USD most of the trading session. Early
Wednesday morning, the Euro reached a high of 1.2072 before comments from Fed
Chairman Bernanke and the results of the Fed Beige book strengthened the
Higher equity and crude oil markets helped drive up demand for riskier
assets. This strength spilled over to the Euro. In addition, traders were a
little more optimistic about the survivability of the Euro after the European
Union finalized its rescue plan. Although sovereign debt issues remain the
major concern, short traders felt it was necessary to pare positions on this
Technically the Euro is still in a downtrend, but the charts indicate there
is room to the upside should the current weakness prove to be only a
retracement and test of the bottom at 1.1876. Recently hedge funds and large
speculators have been shying away from selling weakness and have been more
comfortable with selling retracements. If the bottom at 1.1876 is defended on
this current break, then look for the start of a rally back to the nearest
retracement zone. Watch for renewed selling pressure once the Euro completes
its retracement to 1.2164 to 1.2233.
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