European market Update: European peripherals Bill and Bond auctions aid risk appetite sentiment in session (Trade the News)
Thursday, June 10, 2010
European market Update: European peripherals Bill and Bond auctions aid risk appetite sentiment in session
***Economic Data*** - (GE) Germany May Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e - (GE) Germany May Final CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e - (FI) Finland Apr Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 7.9% v 5.2%e - (FR) France Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 8.5% v 7.1%e - (FR) France Apr Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 7.9% v 6.9%e - (FR) France Q1 Final Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: 0.2% v -0.1%e - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jun 4th: $458.2B v $455.0B prior - (SW) Sweden May CPI Headline Rate M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e; CPI Level: 302.9 v 302.4 prior - (SW) Sweden May CPI Underlying M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e - (DE) Denmark May CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2%e - (DE) Denmark May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.4% prior - (NO) Norway May CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.8%e - (NO) Norway May CPI Underlying M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e - (NO) Norway May Producer Prices incl.Oil M/M: -0.5% v 3.5% prior; Y/Y: 18.4% v 26.7% prior; - (GR) Greece Mar Unemployment Rate: 11.6% v 12.1% prior - (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Production M/M: 1.0% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 8.7% v 7.2%e; Industrial Production Work Day Adj Y/Y: 7.8% v 6.7%e - (IT) Italy Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e - (IT) Italy Q1 Final Private Consumption: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Government Spending: -0.5% v 0.2%e; Total investments: 0.65 v 0.5%e; Exports: 5.35 v 1.7%e; Imports:3.3% v 0.4%e
Fixed Income Results: - (SP) Spain sold â‚¬3.9B (upper end of range) in new Oct 2.5% 2013 Bono; Avg yield 3.39% v 2.007% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 1.8x prior - (IT) Italy Bill Auction Results: Sold â‚¬3.0B in 3-Month Bills; Avg yield 0.836%,v 0.409% prior; Bid-to-cover 3.4x 1.7x prior; Sold â‚¬5.5B in 12-Month Bills, Avg yield 1.377% v 1.442% prior, Bid-to-cover 2.4x v 1.8x prior - (SW) Sweden sells SEK750M in 1.0% index-linked 2012 bonds; bid-to-cover: 9.8x; avg price -0.165 - (HU) Hungary sold HUF35B (below allocation of HUF50B) in 12-month in T-Bills; avg yield 5.35% v 5.17% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equities opened the session lower, tracking the late day sell off on yesterday's US session. The early losses were led by shares of BP, which traded lower by more than 10% and at levels not seen since 1997. As of , equities have moved into positive territory on a recovery in BP's shares and bond auctions from Spain and Italy. Additionally in March, Greece's unemployment rate declined from the multi-year highs seen in Feb. Euro Stoxx 50 Index +1.0% at 2,584; DAX Index +1.2% at 6,023; CAC-40 Index +1.2% at 3,488 and FTSE 100 Index +0.6% at 5,115.
- In Individual Stocks: Kabel Deutschland [KD8.GE]: Reported a net loss of â‚¬45.3M comparing favorably to year-ago loss of â‚¬144.3M. Reported EBITDA of â‚¬659M above estimates of â‚¬653M and Revenues of â‚¬1.5B in line with estimates. Guided Revenue growth at 6.5-7% which implies â‚¬1.59 to â‚¬1.61B) || Wincanton [WIN.UK]: Reported FY operating profit of Â£54.6M below year-ago levels of Â£59.6M and Revenues at Â£2.2B slightly below estimates at Â£2.3B|| Home Retail Group [HOME.UK]: In its interim statement, reported Q1 Argos LFL down 8.1% and Homebase LFL down 1.4%. Noted economic conditions remain both challenging and uncertain. || British Petroleum [BP.UK]: Provided its GoM update and stated that company was not aware of the reason for share price movement. Stated it had significant capacity and flexibility in dealing with the cost of responding to oil spill, which to date is approximately $1.43B v $1.25B on June 7th. In the first 12 hours of June 9 (), approximately 7,920 barrels of oil were collected and 15.7M cubic feet of natural gas were flared. On June 8, a total of approximately 15,000 barrels of oil were collected and 29.4M cubic feet of natural gas were flared. || Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] provided statistics regarding its exposure to the PIIGS putting gross sovereign exposure at â‚¬54.7B. Stated that Tier-1 capital remained wll above target but noted significant regulatory uncertainty. During the session there were rumors circulating that the bank would have to inject funds into US subsidiary Taunus which could be significantly under-capitalized. Taunus is a US-based subsidiary of about $364B as of March 2010.
- Speakers: EU Pres Van Rompuy commented in a radio interview that the EU could expand rescue amount if â‚¬750B package is not enough ***Russia Gov't lowered its 2010 budget deficit to GDP forecast to 5.4% from 6.8% prior *** IEA June Monthly Report stated that it saw 2010 global demand rising but downside risks remain. The IEA raised 2010 oil demand growth by 70K bpd to 1.68M bpd , It raised 2010 global oil demand by 60K b/d to 86.4M bpd and saw non-OPEC output up by 65K b/d. It raised estimates of 2010 non-OPEC supply by 100K bpd to 52.3M bpd due to North Sea output and maintained its estimate of 2010 demand for OPEC crude oil plus stocks at 28.7M bpd. OPEC oil output -30K b/d to 29.02M in May from April. The IEA noted that a longer US Moratorium would cut 100K-300K b/d *** China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) commented that the global economic recovery was on a clear trend with emerging economies as the main drivers. It reiterated that 2010 international payment surplus would remain large. China's trade and foreign direct investments (FDI) to resume growth in 2010. SAFE reiterated that it foreign reserve management to remain prudent and improve diversification of FX reserve investment and reiterated that it would continue to improve cross-border flow monitoring. It would further open fx markets and encourage fx products. China's SAFE commented that the gold market was too small and illiquid for asset allocation *** Turkey PM Ergodan: Forecasts 2010 GDP growth between 6% to 7% ***Spain Economy Ministry commented on the three-year auctions results and noted that the non-resident bids in the auction was "well above" 50% of total allocation ***EU's Junker: Spain may need more reforms next year
- Currencies/Fixed Income: Risk appetite was back on following the better Asian data and decent European peripheral debt auctions in the session. The Euro benefited some short-covering momentum as a result as stops continued to be elected as EUR/USD tries to build upon its recent base of 1.1980/1.20 area. The peripheral spreads tightened throughout the session as dealers took notice that the spread between 10-year Italy/German Gov't Bonds was back below levels seen before the start of the ECB bond buying program. Spain's debt agency sold an amount at the upper end of the range but the recent euphoria might be short-lived as dealers noted that the country has to increase the size whwn some â‚¬16B matures next month (July). The USD and JPY pairs were softer against the European and commodity currencies. Spot gold was lower with comments out of China downplaying the metal's allure. FX Regulator SAFE stated that the gold market was "too small, illiquid and volatile" for asset allocation purposes. All eyes on the ECB press conference later today.
- Geo-Political: Finland's economy entered into a double dip recession becoming the first Euro zone country to do so. A BBC article additionally commented that Finland and Luxembourg are the only countries in the Euro zone to adhere to the fiscal rules of maintaining a deficit of below 3% of its GDP and debt below 60% of GDP. Figures released by Eurostat put Finland's 2009 debt at 44% of GDP. *** Portugal's government approved austerity measures in its final vote. The vote was a line by line review of items targeted to save â‚¬2B in order to achieve the 2010 deficit-to-GDP ratio of 7.3%. This compares to the 2009 ratio of 9.4%. Portugal's 2011 target deficit-to-GDP ratio is 4.6%. *** Netherlands: With nearly all of the votes accounted for, results point to the right leaning VVD party out in front leading Labor by one seat at 31, up from 22 prior. The Labor party at 30 seats down from 33. A coalition may likely need to be formed for the creation of a majority in the 150 seat parliament. Prime minister Jan-Peter Balkenende resigned as party leader following the loss of his Christian Democrat Appeal party. *** Iran: UN Security Council passes sanctions against Iran, though the decision was not unanimous with Turkey and Brazil voting against and Lebanon abstaining. Sanction to include ban on nuclear related activities and inspections of vessles believed to be harboring banned items.
***Notes/Observations: - European peripheral auctions go 'pretty well' - BOE and ECB interest rate decisions later today. - Commodity countries continue with rate hikes. RBNZ hikes 25 bps. Brazil raises by 75bps - Far East data constructive for risk appetite. Australian employment; China trade data better than expected. - Realtytrac: US May default notices drop 7% to lowest level since Nov 2008. Foreclosure activity -3% in May. - WSJ: Sarkozy and Merkel united over shared fear of weak euro currency
***Looking Ahead*** - 7:00 (UK) BOE Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations for Interest Rates to remain unchanged at 0.50%; Asset Purchase Target (APT) expected unchanged at GBP 200B% - 7:00 (SA) South Africa M/M: -1.0%e v 2.6% prior; Y/Y: 7.1%e v 6.3% prior - 7:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Main Refi Rate Unchanged at 1.0% - 7:45 (EU) EU's Van Rompuy meets German Chancellor Merkel - 8:15 (CA) Bank of Canada's Carney - 8:30 ECB monthly press conference - 8:30 (US) Apr Trade Balance:-$41.0Be v -$40.4B prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Apr New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Apr Int'l Merchandise Trade: C$0.6Be v C$0.3B prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 450Ke v 453K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.640Me v 4.666M prior - 10:00 (US) Sec Tsy Geithner testifies on China - 10:30 (US) EIA Natural Gas Inventories - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-year notes reopening - 14:00 (US) May Monthly Budget Statement: -$140.0Be v -$189.7B prior - 15:00 ECB's Trichet speaks
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