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Thursday June 10, 2010 - 10:03:05 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 10/06/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis June 10,
Analysis: Core Retail Sales
Traders of the US await the Core
Retail Sales publication. It is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by
retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in
the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and
also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the
US economy. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish
for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict a future reading of
The Euro broke
yesterdayâ€™s resistance 1.1975, and rose as expected for almost 100 pips, but
without reaching the suggested target 1.2085, as it settled for 1.2072. Unlike
what some might think, this behavior was not a surprise, but a normal part of
wave 4 which we have talked about. This behavior enhances our hypothesis that we
are in a wave 4 of a 5-wave decline, since its known in (The Wave Principle)
that wave 4 price action appears to be random while this wave is developing,
just as it is the case for wave B as well. Breaking below 1.20 on Friday has
opened the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question
now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one
target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will
be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is
the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical
high. For the short term, the wave count illustrated on the chart, shows a
4-wave drop, in which Tuesdayâ€™s â€śbreakâ€ť is wave 4, and we still have room for
another leg down below 1.1875, in what would be wave 5. Short term support is at
1.2021, and if broken the Euro will continue its drop to 1.1875, and then
1.1825. The resistance is at the important 1.12085, and breaking it will give
the chance for the Euro to catch a break, and rise to 1.2176 &
â€˘ 1.2021: important intraday level.
1.1875: Mondayâ€™s low, this cycleâ€™s low, and the 4-year low.
â€˘ 1.1825: Feb
27th 2006 low.
â€˘ 1.2085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the
last drop from 1.2214.
â€˘ 1.2176: May 25th low.
â€˘ 1.2264: May 28th
Dollar/Yen reserved the
â€śboredomâ€ť state in which it spent the previous two days. This very limited
action, has postponed the excitement, hopefully for no longer than today,
especially after a critical level has appeared this morning, catching all of our
attention since yesterday. This level is the support at 90.62. The reasons which
makes this level a shining star standing out is that it combines the rising
trend line from May 20th, with May 26th high (approx.), giving this level a
double importance. But, before we can test this level, we need to break Mondayâ€™s
low 90.96. And if we do, we will drop to test this very important (and hopefully
very exciting) level 90.62. Breaking here would have serious consequences on
this pair, and 89.81 will only be a first & modest target for this break, on
the way to lower levels. Resistance is at 91.48, and if broken, the important
support test scenario will be void, and we will target 92.56 &
â€˘ 90.96: Mondayâ€™s low.
â€˘ 90.62: May 26th
high (approx.) & the important rising trend line on hourly charts.
89.81: May 26th low.
â€˘ 91.48: the falling trend
line from Mondayâ€™s top on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 92.56: Apr 13th low.
93.62: May 13th high.
Forex Trading Analysis written by
Munther Marji for Forex Pros.
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