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Thursday June 10, 2010 - 22:56:40 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (10 June 2010)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2140 level and was supported around the $1.1955 level.  As expected, the European Central Bank kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 1.0% today and ECB President Trichet noted the central bank would continue to offer three-month emergency loans to financial institutions until September.  Traders also moved into euro after bond auctions in Spain and Italy were well-received by investors, suggesting the threat of sovereign contagion may be diminishing.  Trichet said it will be “appropriate” for the ECB to continue purchasing sovereign and corporate bonds, noting “we have a money market that is not functioning perfectly.” As a result, there is a likelihood that official European interest remains will remain muted for quite some time.  The ECB also lifted its eurozone growth forecast to 1.0% today from the previous estimate of 0.8% and now expects the economy to expand about 1.2% in 2011, down from the previous estimate of 1.5%.  Data released in Germany today saw May headline consumer price inflation up 0.1% m/m and 1.2% y/y while the harmonized rate was up 0.1% m/m and 1.2% y/y.  Other data saw April manufacturing production up 0.4% m/m and 8.5% y/y while April industrial production was off 0.3% m/m and 7.9% y/y.  Also, French Q1 non-farm payrolls were up 0.2% q/q.  In U.S. news, the April trade balance deficit widened to –US$ 40.3 billion from the revised previous tally of –US$ 40.0 billikon.  Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 456,000 while continuing hibless claims fell sizable to 4.462 million from an upwardly-revised 4.717 million.  Data to be released tomorrow include May advance retail sales, mid-June University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and April business inventories.  The Fed reported its assets fell to US$ 2.33 trillion as some liquidity swaps with foreign central banks declined.  Fed Chairman Bernanke yesterday characterized the Fed’s debt as “unsustainable.”  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2330 level. 



¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥91.45 level and was supported around the ¥90.85 level.  Global risk appetite was stronger today compared with recent trading sessions and the yen was given as a result.  The yen remains technically overbought and could snap back quickly as traders assume risk in higher-yielding currencies.  Bank of Japan will soon release details about its latest plan to stimulate credit for the private sector, an initiative likely to total several trillion yen.  Data released in Japan overnight confirmed Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized 5% rate in the three months that ended 31 March, up from the previous estimate of +4.9% and the largest increase since Q2 2009.  The economy was up an unchanged 1.2% q/q and the GDP deflator was off 2.8% y/y, up from the earliest estimate of -3.0%.  Other data released overnight saw the May domestic corporate goods price index up 0.1% m/m and 0.4% y/y while May consumer confidence improved to 42.7.  New finance minister Noda this week reported “The Bank of Japan has taken steps based on its understanding of price stability as (inflation of above) zero to 2 per cent – with a median at 1 per cent – which I think is reasonable.  Prime Minister Kan’s view is that we should achieve above 1 per cent (inflation).  I share his view but that is not to advocate inflation targeting.”  The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.09% to close at ¥9,542.65.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥110.85 level and was supported around the ¥108.95 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥134.35 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥80.10 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8307 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8280. People’s Bank of China this week warned Chinese economic growth will continue to be impacted by global problems and said final domestic private demand is still not “solid.” PBoC noted an “appropriately loose” monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy will continue.  Data released in China overnight saw May NDRC housing prices move higher while the May trade balance grew more-than-expected to US$ 19.53 billion on a 48.5% surge in exports. Many data will be released tonight including May PPI, CPI, retail sales, and industrial production.  People’s Bank of China has injected CNY 166 billion to the money market this week to ease pressure from the tightening money supply.  The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported China will see a “large” international payments surplus in 2010. 


The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.4715 level and was supported around the $1.4510 level. As expected, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep its main Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% today.  The BoE also kept its asset purchase target unchanged at £200 billion.  Inflation remains elevated in the U.K. but the central bank is also trying to stimulate economic growth and will likely not raise interest rates anytime soon.  Prime Minister Cameron will unveil an emergency budget on 22 June.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4220 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8220 level and was capped around the £0.8280 level.


The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.1395 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1505 level.  Traders continue to test the resolve of the Swiss National Bank to support the euro/ franc cross through continued intervention.  Swiss foreign reserves have recently increased significantly and many dealers believe the central bank cannot afford to keep intervening en masse.  Data released in Switzerland this week saw the May unemployment rate remain unchanged at 4.0% while May consumer price inflation was off 0.1% m/m and up 1.1% y/y.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the US$ 1.1310 level.  The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3870 level while the British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6840 level.


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