Friday June 11, 2010 - 03:44:38 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 11-Jun-2010 - 0342 GMT
The US Equities rallied yesterday. The Dow (10172.353) was up 2.76% and the Nasdaq (2218.71) was up 2.77%. The Markets were up on account of upbeat economic data from China, Japan and Australia coupled with a drop in Jobless claims. The Dow still has a risk of falling towards 9460 in the coming weeks.
The Asians are GREEN today. The Nikkei (9733.06, up 2.00%) may fall further towards 9000 in the coming weeks, the Shanghai (2569.97, up 0.29%) has a risk of falling towards 2350 while below 2600 in the next few weeks and the Hang Seng (19870.86) is up 1.21%. In India, the Sensex (16922.08) and the Nifty (5078.60) were up about 1.58% yesterday. The Sensex still has a danger of a fall towards 16000 in the coming days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4502.20) is up 1.19% today.
Crude (75.36) is keeping up its upside momentum and closed higher above 75 yesterday. Reports on strong Chinese exports and International Energy Agency's increased demand outlook for 2010 supported the price rise yesterday. However, important to note that the Resistance at 76 which we have been mentioning for some time is still holding. A strong break above 76 will have to be seen to wipe out the downside pressure. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1219.80) is continuing to trade lower.we might see a test of 1210-00. The last two weeks candles on the weekly chart is looking weak. However, Support is seen at 1200 and if it holds we might see a bounce back once again. A strong break below 1200 might pull it down towards 1170-50. However, the broader picture is still bullish. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Risk appetite slighlty coming back into the markets. The strong Chinese exports and German court's rejection of blocking Germany from Euro area rescue fund has eased the concerns. But how long will this positive hope sustain for long and cause a reversal or will it be short lived? We will have to wait and watch.
The Euro (1.2108) is trading higher and has significant Resistance at 1.2130-50 region. Dollar-Yen (91.49) is looking bullish for a rise to 92.00-50 as the 200-DMA (90.92) is continuing to hold very well. The Euro-Yen (110.73) Cross has risen sharply and might test the 21-DMA Resistance (111.65) today.
The Pound (1.4711) has risen strongly and might test 1.48 today which is a very crucial Resistance level to watch for. Aussie (0.8464) has risen sharply and might test the Resistance at 0.8550 today. Dollar-Swiss (1.1429) is trading lower mirroring the rise in Euro. But the Support at 1.14 is holding which still keeps the overall bullish sentiment alive.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1240 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.4040. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.9650/9750 yesterday and might test the Support at 46.80-60 region today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchaged at 0.54%. The 2Y and 10Y yield were up 4 bps and 11 bps to quote at 0.77% and 3.30% respectively.
In their meeting yesterday, the BOE and the ECB have kept their rates unchanged at 0.50% and 1.00% respectively.
09:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q4 '09
...Previous EUR 7.0 bln
09:00 GMT EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services
...Previous EUR 10.6 bln
09:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP
12:30 GMT US May Retail Sales
JP GDP Q4'10 (2nd Pre)
...Actual 1.2%...Previous 1.2%
May Australia Labour Force
...Actual 26.9 K...Previous 35.3K
...Actual 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
E-15 ECB Announcement
...Actual 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
US May Trade Balance
...Actual $ -40.3 Bln...Previous $ -40.4 Bln
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