British Pound Weakens after Testing Main Top at 1.4769
The British Pound is under pressure this morning as buying
dried up as the market approached the June 2nd top at 1.4769. In
addition to this resistance price, traders may have also shied away from the
long side because of the 50% level at 1.4810.
Technically the GBP USD has been taking on a bullish tone
following the formation of the secondary higher bottom at 1.4345. This current
chart formation suggests that the main trend is gearing to turn up following a
break out over 1.4769. Investors may be afraid to buy strength at this time
leading to speculation that the market may test a 50% level at 1.4499 before
Fundamentally, news that the Bank of Englandâ€™s latest
inflation survey showed a surge may be helping to pressure the British Pound
this morning. The BoEâ€™s survey found that median expectations for the inflation
rate over the coming year were 3.3%, up from 2.5% in February. This spike to
the highest level since August 2008 may raise concerns among policymakerâ€™s who
had expected the number to recede after stimulus measures were wound down
earlier in the year.
The BoEâ€™s Monetary Policy Committee has been downplaying
inflationary concerns lately, considering it a temporary condition. This week
the MPC voted to leave interest rates unchanged. This was a sure sign that
inflation is not their primary concern at this time. The policymakers will
nonetheless be keeping their eye on inflation over the next few months.
Overnight the U.K. reported that manufacturing
output fell 0.4% in April, compared to April 2009, output was up 3.4%. Traders
had been looking for a monthly rise of 0.4% and an annual increase of 2.8%.
This report indicated that the U.K.
economy is recovering but sluggishly.
Besides the implementation of new austerity measures and a
Fitch Ratings commentary suggesting the U.K. should accelerate its budget
cutting plans, British Pound investors now have to worry about inflation.
Although the BoE wants to downplay the number, investors have to be concerned
about it because it may mean the BoE will be forced to increase interest rates
sooner than expected. A premature hike in interest rates could help to derail
the economic recovery taking place and along with new austerity measures may be
a little too much of a shock for the economy at this time.
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10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
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