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Friday June 11, 2010 - 19:34:00 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (11 June 2011)

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2045 level and was capped around the $1.2150 level.  The common currency was unable to sustain intraday gains after it was reported U.S. May retail sales tumbled 1.2% from an upwardly revised +0.6% in April.  The ex-autos component was off 1.1%, down sharply from the upwardly-revised +0.6% April reading.  Other data released today saw April business inventories print at +0.4% while June University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved more-than-expected to 75.5 from the prior reading of 73.6.  The decline in retail sales kept U.S. equities under pressure but the common currency was unable to notch its fourth consecutive daily gain.  European Central Bank member Stark reported the European Union will seek to get an “AAA” rating on the debt instruments it may use as a backstop to provide funding for the eurozone in the event of additional sovereign credit problems. Stark added “inflation is still very well-anchored in the eurozone” and said the ongoing crisis in the eurozone is “not a crisis of the euro.” ECB member Bini Smaghi reported the eurozone will likely expand and said abandoning the euro would be “highly detrimental.”  In U.S. news, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser reported “The economic recovery is on a sustainable path, and I expect further progress even as we unwind the accommodative monetary and fiscal stimulus put in place during the crisis.  Although the recovery so far has been quite mild given the recession’s severity, I believe that it is becoming more broad-based.” Vice Chairman Kohn will remain at the Fed beyond his retirement date as his successor, San Francisco Fed President Yellen, has not yet had her Senate confirmation hearing.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2330 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥91.75 level and was supported around the ¥91.25 level.  Bank of Japan will soon release details about its latest plan to stimulate credit for the private sector, an initiative likely to total several trillion yen.  New Prime Minister Kan will likely continue to pressure the central bank to expand its monetary policy further.  BoJ’s Policy Board will next week convene and is unlikely to alter monetary policy, aside from releasing details about its new loan scheme.  Data released in Japan this week confirmed Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized 5% rate in the three months that ended 31 March, up from the previous estimate of +4.9% and the largest increase since Q2 2009.  The economy was up an unchanged 1.2% q/q and the GDP deflator was off 2.8% y/y, up from the earliest estimate of -3.0%.  Other data released this week saw the May domestic corporate goods price index up 0.1% m/m and 0.4% y/y while May consumer confidence improved to 42.7.  New finance minister Noda this week reported “The Bank of Japan has taken steps based on its understanding of price stability as (inflation of above) zero to 2 per cent – with a median at 1 per cent – which I think is reasonable.  Prime Minister Kan’s view is that we should achieve above 1 per cent (inflation).  I share his view but that is not to advocate inflation targeting.”  The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.70% to close at ¥9,705.25.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥110.25 level and was capped around the ¥111.35 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥132.65 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥79.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8330 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8307.  Data released in China today saw the May producer price index up 7.1% y/y while May CPI was up a stronger-than-expected 3.1% y/y.  Also, May retail sales were up 18.7% y/y, May industrial production was up 16.5% y/y, and May money supply decreased year-over-year.  It was also reported that May new yuan loans fell to CNY 639.4 billion from the previous reading of CNY 774.0 billion.  Some of these data were leaked earlier in the week and they led to higher global equity prices.  The Chinese government today experienced its third failed treasury bill auction this year as banks demanded higher yields to counter inflation. 



The British pound depreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4500 figure and was capped around the $1.4755 level. Many data were released in the U.K. today. First, May producer price inflation input was off 0.6% m/m and up 11.2% y/y with output up 0.3% m/m and 5.7% y/y.  Core output was up 0.1% m/m and 4.4% y/y.  Also, April industrial production was off 0.4% m/m and up 2.1% y/y while April manufacturing production was off 0.4% m/m and up 3.4% y/y.  Finally, the May NIESR GDP estimate printed at +0.6%.  BoE reported U.K. residents’ expectations for inflation over the last twelve months reached 3.3% last month, its highest level since August 2008.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4220 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8320 level and was supported around the £0.8210 level.



The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1545 level and was supported around the CHF 1.1405 level.  Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand reported Swiss banks should be allowed to go bankrupt.  Traders continue to test the resolve of the Swiss National Bank to support the euro/ franc cross through continued intervention.  Swiss foreign reserves have recently increased significantly and many dealers believe the central bank cannot afford to keep intervening en masse.  Data released in Switzerland this week saw the May unemployment rate remain unchanged at 4.0% while May consumer price inflation was off 0.1% m/m and up 1.1% y/y.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the US$ 1.1310 level.  The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3945 level while the British pound lost ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6685 level.


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