Monday June 14, 2010 - 03:58:42 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 14-Jun-2010 - 0356 GMT
The US Equities were up last week. The Dow (10211.07) was up 2.81% and the Nasdaq (2243.60) was up 1.10%. While below 10350, the Dow may fall towards 9500 in the coming weeks / months.
The Asians are GREEN today. The Nikkei (9856.76.06, up 1.56%) may still fall towards 9000 in the coming weeks. The Shanghai is closed today on account of the Dragon Boat Festival. The Hang Seng (20051.33) is up 0.90%. In India, the Sensex (17064.95) and the Nifty (5119.35) were down 0.31% last week. The Sensex may fall towards 16000 in the coming weeks.
Australia is closed on account of Queen's Birthday today. The All Ordinaries (4516.50) was up about 1% last week.
Crude (74.52) fell sharply on Friday following the unexpected fall in the US retail sales. However, it has bounced back from its low of 73.26 and is now trading just above 74.50. As mentioned earlier, 76 is a very significant Resistance and a strong break above it might trigger fresh rally towards 80-82. While 76 holds we might see a pull back once again towards 72-70. To see the Crude chart click on the following link:
Gold (1232) has bounced back from Friday's low of 1218. Though the broader picture continues to remain bullish, the near tern outlook is mixed since it is not showing much strength on its upmove above 1200 over the last few weeks.
The Euro (1.2180) is contiuing to trade higher but has significant Resistance at 1.2216 (21-DMA) which might be tested today. Dollar-Yen (91.88), with strong Support at 91.00-90.90 region, is looking bullish for a rise towards 93.00-30. Note that the 21-Month-MA (93.24) is the significant Resistance level to watch for on the upside. Euro-Yen Cross (111.93) has risen following the rise in the Euro. It has Resistance at 112.35 which if broken might see 112.80-113 on the upside today.
The Pound (1.4607) has bounced back from Friday's low of 1.4503. The 21-DMA (1.4505) is a significant Support seen and while it continues to hold we might see a rise once again towards 1.4750-80. Dollar-Swiss (1.4448) has come off from Friday's high of 1.1547. However, it has very strong Support at 1.1400-1.1380 region which is expected to hold. Aussie (0.8564) is continuing to trade strong and it has broken above the significant Resistance at 0.8550. If it continues to trade above 0.8550 we might see further rise towards 0.8630-50.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is continuing to trade weak near 1245 and the USD-SGD is trading near 1.3985. Dollarr-Rupee has closed at 46.84/85 on Friday.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchaged at 0.54%. The 2Y and 10Y yield were down 1 bp and 4 bps to quote at 0.76% and 3.26% respectively.
09:00 GMT EU May IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected 0.7%...Previous 1.3%
00:01 GMT UK Cons Conf
...Expected 78...Previous 74
EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q4 '09
...Actual EUR -19.6 bln...Previous EUR 7.0 bln
EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services
...Actual 4.9 bln...Previous EUR 10.6 bln
EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP
...Actual -0.9%...Previous 0.3%
US May Retail Sales
...Actual -1.2%...Previous 0.4%
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