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Monday June 14, 2010 - 09:53:21 GMT
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European Market Update: Risk appetite continues to find footing in session (Trade the News)

Monday, June 14, 2010 5:48:02 AM

European Market Update: Risk appetite continues to find footing in session;

 

***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland May CPi M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.2%e
- (FI) Finland Apr Final Retail Sales Volume: 0.2% v 6.4% prior
- (IN) India May Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 10.2% v 9.6%e
- (SP) Spain Apr House Transactions: Y/Y: 17.6% v 9.0% prior
- (SZ) Swiss May Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 0.9%e
- (IT) Italy Q1 Labor Costs Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 2.6%e
- (SW) Sweden May AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.5% v 4.6%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Q1 Industrial Production Y/Y: 0.4% v -4.9% prior; Producer Price: 4.0% v -0.3% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.8% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 9.5% v 8.7%e
- (PO) Portugal May Consumer prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (PO) Portugal May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.7% prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: - European equities opened the session higher, supported by gains in Asian equities and the narrowing in peripheral debt spreads. In terms of specific sectors, today's gains are being led by miners and financials. However, shares of BP are moving lower on continued concern about the outlook for the company's dividend and costs related to the Gulf fo Mexico oil spill. Euro Stoxx 50 Index +1.4% at 2,674; DAX Index +1.2% at 6,120; CAC-40 Index +1.5% at 3,608 and FTSE 100 Index +0.7% at 5,198.

- In Individual Stocks: British Petroleum [BP.UK]: Provided daily update in which cost of Gulf of Mexico response to date is $1.6B v $1.43B on June 10th. In the first 12 hours of June 13 (midnight to noon), approximately 7,720 barrels of oil were collected and 16.9M cubic feet of natural gas were flared. On June 12, a total of approximately 15K barrels of oil were collected and 32.9M cubic feet of natural gas were flared|| United Utilities [UU.UK]: To sell UK and European non-regulated interests, transaction valued at approximately £174M to Veolia Water UK || CS.FR Weekend press speculated that Axa was in talks to sell UK unit to Resolution. The talks were confirmed by both companies. Total consideration under discussion is £2.75B, which is expected to be funded by a pre-emptive rights issue by Resolution of approximately £2B, £0.5B of Deferred Consideration Notes issued to AXA and also by acquisition bank debt. || Onyx Pharmaceuticals [ONXX]: Reported that Phase III trial of Nexavar in first-line advanced non-small cell lung cancer did not meet primary endpoint of overall survival || Majestic Wines [MJW.UK]: Reported prelim FY10 profit before tax £16M well above year-ago figures of £7.4M. Revenues were at £233.2M also above year-levels of £201.8M.Like-for-like sales in UK retail stores increased 8.4%. Outlook for the UK remained uncertain.

- Speakers: Fed's Bullard commented that US inflation was well contained at this time; but noted the current European crisis should not postpone any Fed's interest rate increase. He did not see signs of contagion from European debt crisis. Bullard stressed that now was not the time to normalize Discount rate further but IF it was raised it would not be a sign of further monetary action. US might benefit on safe-haven flows and that the US housing prices likely to have hit bottom but noted that they would not rise anytime soon. The Fed could pull back on some quantitative easing as US economy recovered and might have inflationary risks in the medium term due to monetary policy. Fed's Bullard added in additional commentary that the US economic recovery was on track and might be complete in Q3. China is back on rapid growth path but is not facing bubble and is likely to continue for a 'considerable' period of time and he noted that the risk of a sudden Chinese slowdown was limited. The European situation was serious and unclear but did not expect that the debt woes will derail global recovery ***China Foreign Min Qin reiterated the view that Yuan currency issue was not the main reason for the trade imbalances between US and China. He stressed that trade imbalances were caused by effects of globalization. He noted that the Yuan currency exchange rate was dependent upon global economy and opposed politicization of the Yuan currency issue. China did reiterate principles for exchange rate reform. Yuan currency appreciation cannot solve US low savings rate or its unemployment problems ***Japan PM Kan reiterated prior goals to achieve main budget balance in 10 years time. Would also cap fiscal year's JGB issuance to ¥44.3T after FY11 ***ECB's Nowotny commented that it was important that the debt crisis did not turn towards the banking sector. He noted that the global economy had recovered this year and the Central Eastern Europe (CEE) had recovered faster than expected. He noted that the ECB was in exit strategy phase and would not renew 12-month tender operation. The Euro currency stability was not in danger and the ECB member had no issue with euro currency appreciation negatively affecting exports. ***UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) presented its initial forecasts and lowered the UK GDP growth outlook and overall deficit projections. The OBR forecasted 2011 GDP at 2.6% v 3.0% to 3.5% official gov't range and place the 2012 GDP outlook at 2.8% versus the prior range between 3.25% to 3.75%. the OBR put UK trend growth rate at 2.25% over the next three years and slowing to 2.0% in 2014. The OBR forecasted £22B lower deficit in the 2010/15 period with the 2010/11 PSNB at £155B v £163B prior gov't forecast. ***Fitch affirms India's Long-term local currency rating at "BBB-"; raises outlook to "Stable" from "negative"

- Currencies/Fixed Income: A continued rise in risk appetite prompted higher stocks, a narrowing of peripheral spreads and a softer USD and JPY to begin the week. The EUR/USD moved firmly above the 1.22 level with dealers noting that 1.23 and 1.24 area of retracement would not be out of the question in the current technical environment. ECB's Nowotny that Euro currency stability was not in danger played upon the rising risk appetite scenario in the session. The GBP also benefited from 'hawkish' comments from BOE member Sentence in the weekend press when he questioned how long the UK could maintain its expansionary monetary policy. GBP/USD approaching the mid-1.47 handle, up over 125 from the Tokyo open. USD/JPY testing the 92 area but remained within its recent weekly ranges of late.

- Geo-Political: The Belgian elections during the weekend indicated preliminary results pointing towards the centre-right New Flemish Alliance Flemish (N-VA) party majority. According to the Guardian, with over 80% of votes accounted for in Sunday's election, the likely result would be an N-VA party win of 28 seats in the lower house versus the current 8. This would cause the French-speaking socialists to drop to second place. Note the current coalition is comprised of Christian Democrats, Liberals and Socialists, all of which have divisions between the Dutch and French-speaking members. The article goes on to comment that the election results will increase divisions between Flemish and French speaking regions. *** In France, Prime Minister Fillon addressed budgetary concerns by favoring to increase the nation's retirement age to 63 from the current 60, which was also supported by several members of Parliament according to the French press.

In The paper: NYT comments on how banks in Germany and France are the most exposed to the EU debt crisis and noted that banks in these two countries have lent about $1T to the most troubled countries in the EU. Banks in France had lent $493B to Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland by the end of 2009. (BIS data) German banks have lent $465B (BIS data). Hypo Real Estate has said that its exposure to government debt from the four countries (plus Italy) is more than $97B. Deutsche Bank holds €500M in Greek government bonds and no Spanish nor Portuguese sovereign debt

***Notes/Observations:
- China stresses that it would resolutely oppose politicizing Yuan currency issue
- Risk appetite sentiment maintains a foothold into the new week. Asian equities end up around 1.5% (Mainland China was closed)

***Looking Ahead***
- 6:30 (GE) German Fin Min Schaeuble
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Apr Current Account: -€650Me v -€559M prior; Trade Balance: -€410Me v -€514M prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Apr New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: -5.0%e v -4.25 prior
- 9:00 (FR) France to sell €7.5B in Bills
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico May Vehicle Production: No est v 170.3K prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: No est v 60.4K prior
- 11:00 (GE) German Chancellor Merkel meets French President Sarkozy

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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