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Monday June 14, 2010 - 10:40:41 GMT
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FOREX NEWS-Euro rises as better risk sentiment hits shorts (RTRS)

Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:59am EDT

* Euro EUR= rises 1 pct vs dlr EUR= as equities gain

* Rally is risk-driven; Aussie/dlr hits 1-month high

* Obama stimulus plans could undermine dollar

Adds comment, updates throughout)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - The euro rose on Monday as an improvement in sentiment towards riskier assets hit the dollar and prompted a bout of short-covering in the single European currency, lifting it further away from a recent four-year low.

But analysts said the recovery in the euro was unlikely to push it out of its downtrend, as the structural problems in the euro zone which have plagued the currency had not altered.

"We've seen a good session for equities. This looks to be a pro-risk move, driven by the higher-yielding currencies such as the Aussie. Fundamentally, nothing has changed for the euro," said Kenneth Broux, market economist at Lloyds Banking Group.

At 0940GMT, the euro EUR= was up around 1 percent versus the dollar at $1.2245, just off best levels of the day. European equities .FTEU3 were up 1 percent.

Traders said hedge funds had been seen cutting short positions on a break of $1.2150/60 in Asia and then through $1.2220 in Europe.

Technical analysts were looking for a close above the 21-day moving average at $1.2234 for the first time since mid-April. Additional resistance levels were highlighted at $1.2330 and $1.2445, the 2008 and 2009 lows.

The euro has lost 15 percent against the dollar this year but gained 1.6 percent last week as it pulled up from a four-year low at $1.1876.

European Union leaders meet on Thursday and are expected to make a new attempt to convince markets they can contain debt problems by agreeing how to tighten economic policy coordination and strengthen budget discipline. [ID:nLDE65C0FB]


Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed speculators boosted their bets against the euro in the week ended June 8, although net short positions were below record levels. [IMM/FX]

"The positioning is not extreme but there is room for a rebound in the euro from here. Our one-month forecast is for a move to $1.25 but after that we expect it to go down," said Derek Halpenny, European head of currency research at BTM-UFJ.

The Australian dollar gained around 1 percent versus the dollar AUD=D4 to trade above $0.8600, its highest in a month.

The Aussie also gained more than a percent on the low-yielding yen, which was soft across the board, to 78.99 yen AUDJPY=R, touching its highest in nearly four weeks.

The euro rose 1.4 percent to trade above 112 yen for the first time in a week. The rise in the yen crosses allowed the dollar to make a brief show above 92 yen JPY=.

The dollar was down over 1 percent versus a currency basket .DXY at 86.522. Analysts said the greenback could be undermined by U.S. President Barack Obama and his aides calling for more stimulus to support the economy. [ID:nN13136667]

"With the market focusing on public finances, this politically motivated move could put the dollar under pressure going forward," said Broux at Lloyds.

A top White House adviser said on Sunday the administration wanted to speed up job creation.

Sterling was given a boost as the UK's newly created Office for Budget responsibility said it expected government borrowing to fall slightly faster than originally thought. [ID:nWEA6006]

The pound was up 1.3 percent versus the dollar GBP=D4 at $1.4740 and outpaced the euro slightly to trade at 83.08 pence.

(Editing by Nigel Stephenson)



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