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Monday June 14, 2010 - 10:48:10 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 14/06/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis June 14,
Analysis: German ZEW Economic Sentiment
European traders await
the publication of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. It determines the
sentiment of German institutional investors. Above 0 indicates optimism while
below 0 indicates pessimism. It's a leading indicator of business conditions.
The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors
and analysts. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish
for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a future reading of
The Euro broke the
resistance 1.2127 which we said that it â€świll be very positive for the short
termâ€ť, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2176, confirming
the â€śbreak of the downtrendâ€ť which we talked about on Friday. There is no doubt
that the Euro has broken the trend, but that is only for the short term. We
should not confuse this actual trend break and the change in direction for the
short term, which the persisting downtrend for the medium term which is still
going strong. This break has passed the first challenge on Friday by breaking
1.2127, but it is invited to another equally important challenge at 1.2214
today. If the Euro is to continue with its rise, it should break this resistance
and should not stop at or near it. In case we do break this resistance the
targets will be 1.2295 first, and then 1.2352. On the other hand, the support is
at 1.2166, and if we break it, then this â€śhotâ€ť rise will go cold, and we will
fall targeting the important 1.2106, then 1.2044.
1.2166: important intraday support.
â€˘ 1.2106: Fibonacci 61.8 for the short
â€˘ 1.2044: Fridayâ€™s low, and the retest level of the broken trend
â€˘ 1.2214: June 4th high.
â€˘ 1.2295: May
â€˘ 1.2352: May 1st
Dollar/Yen broke the
resistance specified in Fridayâ€™s report 91.65, but it barely made it to 92 (the
high at the moment of preparing this report is exactly 92.00), which makes us
wonder if we will see results to this break. We are full of hope to see some
excitement today, as we are betting on the Dollar to capitalize on the break of
the falling trend line from last weekâ€™s high. And if it breaks the resistance
91.91, that would be probable, and we would be looking forward to reach the
92.56 & 93.62 targets. Having said that, the possibility of a drop remains,
but it now needs a break of the support 91.60. If we do, we will target a
critical level has appeared this morning, catching all of our attention for the
past 3 days. This level is the support at 90.65. The reasons which makes this
level a shining star standing out is that it combines the rising trend line from
May 20th, with June 7th low, giving this level a double importance. But, before
we can test this level, we need to break the 91.60, which is the rising trend
line from Thursdayâ€™s low. And if we do, we will drop to test this very important
(and hopefully very exciting) level 90.94. Breaking here would have serious
consequences on this pair, and 89.81 will only be a first & modest target
for this break, on the way to lower levels.
the rising trend line from Thursdayâ€™s low on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 90.94: June
7th low & the important rising trend line on hourly charts.
â€˘ 89.81: May
â€˘ 91.91: June 8th high.
â€˘ 92.56: Apr
â€˘ 93.62: May 13th high.
trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
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