Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 June 2010)
The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2295
level and was supported around the $1.2115 level.The common currency shook off news that Greece‚Äôs
credit rating was reduced four notches by Moody‚Äôs from A3 to Ba1, essentially
reducing the country‚Äôs debt to ‚Äújunk‚ÄĚ status.Many dealers believe Greece could default on its debt, possibly as early
as later this year.French President
Sarkozy indicated his country will announce pension reform details on 16 June
while German Chancellor Merkel called on European countries to enact structural
reform and said Europe must reduce debt.The common currency also shook off rumours that that Spain is seeking financial
aid from the European Union, a story the European Central Bank dismissed. Group of Seven officials are scheduled to
participate in a conference call later today.The ECB is expected to maintain its accommodative monetary policy for
several months, if not longer.ECB
member Nowotny reported euro volatility is ‚Äúcompletely unproblematic.‚ÄĚData released today EMU-16 April industrial
production up 0.8% m/m and 9.5% y/y.In U.S. news, the San Francisco Federal
Reserve Bank said the Fed will likely take ‚Äúsignificant‚ÄĚ time to tighten monetary
policy.In contrast, St. Louis Fed
President Bullard reported ‚ÄúUnless events in Europe turn out to be much worse,
I think that in the near term, the U.S. is probably a beneficiary of the crisis
in Europe‚Ä¶I don‚Äôt think it should push back (the Fed‚Äôs starting date to begin
tightening).‚ÄĚData to be released in the
U.S. tomorrow include the May import price index, June Empire manufacturing
index, June NAHB housing market index, and April total net TICS flows.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•92.10 level and was supported around
the ¬•91.60 level. The pair moved higher as global risk appetite increased despite
elevated sovereign credit risks.OECD
called on Bank of Japan to establish a high inflation target to help lift Japan
out of deflation.Vice finance minister
Ikeda today said he will support measures to reduce deflation but it remains to
be seen if he will temper some of his hawkish recent comments.The central bank‚Äôs two-day Policy Board
meeting began today and the central bank is expected to keep its overnight call
rate target unchanged at 0.10%.Also, the
central bank is expected to announce details about encouraging banks to
increasing lending in certain sectors.Data
released in Japan overnight saw the Q2 BSI large all-industry index improve to
4.0 from the prior reading of -2.4 while the large manufacturing index improved
to 10.0 from the prior reading of 4.3.April
industrial production will be released overnight.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.80% to
close at ¬•9,879.85.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency
tested offers around the ¬•112.85 level and was supported around the ¬•111.05
level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested
offers around the ¬•135.85 level while the
Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•81.00
figure. In Chinese news, the U.S.
dollar appreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY
6.8333 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8330. Data released in China last week saw the May
producer price index up 7.1% y/y while May CPI was up a stronger-than-expected
3.1% y/y.Also, May retail sales were up
18.7% y/y, May industrial production was up 16.5% y/y, and May money supply
decreased year-over-year.It was also
reported last week that May new yuan loans fell to CNY 639.4 billion from the
previous reading of CNY 774.0 billion.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.4805 level and was supported around the $1.4550 level. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee
member Posen defended the central bank‚Äôs independence, saying its asset
purchase program does not damage the central bank‚Äôs independence.Former MPC member Goodhart said the central
bank may restarts its bond purchase program this year.Former BoE Deputy Governor Gieve said U.K.
public finances have improved ‚Äúrapidly.‚ÄĚBoE MPC member Dale warned ‚ÄúThe financial crisis has entered a new phase
over the past three months.The effects
of the crisis are likely to persist for some time.‚ÄĚData
to be released in the U.K. tonight include the May RICS house price balance
followed by May consumer price inflation tomorrow, April DCLG U.K. house
prices, and May Nationwide consumer confidence.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4220 level.The
euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids
around the ¬£0.8295 level and was capped around the ¬£0.8360 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.1350 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1490 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw May
producer and import prices climb 0.3% m/m and 1.4% y/y,
Bank President Hildebrand last week reported Swiss banks should be allowed to
go bankrupt.U.S. dollar bids are cited
around the US$ 1.1310 level.The euro gained ground vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3985 level
while the British pound gained ground
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6835 level.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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