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Monday June 14, 2010 - 19:28:38 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 June 2010)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2295 level and was supported around the $1.2115 level.  The common currency shook off news that Greece’s credit rating was reduced four notches by Moody’s from A3 to Ba1, essentially reducing the country’s debt to “junk” status.  Many dealers believe Greece could default on its debt, possibly as early as later this year.  French President Sarkozy indicated his country will announce pension reform details on 16 June while German Chancellor Merkel called on European countries to enact structural reform and said Europe must reduce debt.  The common currency also shook off rumours that that Spain is seeking financial aid from the European Union, a story the European Central Bank dismissed.  Group of Seven officials are scheduled to participate in a conference call later today.  The ECB is expected to maintain its accommodative monetary policy for several months, if not longer.  ECB member Nowotny reported euro volatility is “completely unproblematic.”  Data released today EMU-16 April industrial production up 0.8% m/m and 9.5% y/y.  In U.S. news, the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank said the Fed will likely take “significant” time to tighten monetary policy.  In contrast, St. Louis Fed President Bullard reported “Unless events in Europe turn out to be much worse, I think that in the near term, the U.S. is probably a beneficiary of the crisis in Europe…I don’t think it should push back (the Fed’s starting date to begin tightening).”  Data to be released in the U.S. tomorrow include the May import price index, June Empire manufacturing index, June NAHB housing market index, and April total net TICS flows.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2330 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥92.10 level and was supported around the ¥91.60 level. The pair moved higher as global risk appetite increased despite elevated sovereign credit risks.  OECD called on Bank of Japan to establish a high inflation target to help lift Japan out of deflation.  Vice finance minister Ikeda today said he will support measures to reduce deflation but it remains to be seen if he will temper some of his hawkish recent comments.  The central bank’s two-day Policy Board meeting began today and the central bank is expected to keep its overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.10%.  Also, the central bank is expected to announce details about encouraging banks to increasing lending in certain sectors.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the Q2 BSI large all-industry index improve to 4.0 from the prior reading of -2.4 while the large manufacturing index improved to 10.0 from the prior reading of 4.3.  April industrial production will be released overnight.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.80% to close at ¥9,879.85.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥112.85 level and was supported around the ¥111.05 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥135.85 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥81.00 figure. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8333 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8330.  Data released in China last week saw the May producer price index up 7.1% y/y while May CPI was up a stronger-than-expected 3.1% y/y.  Also, May retail sales were up 18.7% y/y, May industrial production was up 16.5% y/y, and May money supply decreased year-over-year.  It was also reported last week that May new yuan loans fell to CNY 639.4 billion from the previous reading of CNY 774.0 billion. 



The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.4805 level and was supported around the $1.4550 level.  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Posen defended the central bank’s independence, saying its asset purchase program does not damage the central bank’s independence.  Former MPC member Goodhart said the central bank may restarts its bond purchase program this year.  Former BoE Deputy Governor Gieve said U.K. public finances have improved “rapidly.”  BoE MPC member Dale warned “The financial crisis has entered a new phase over the past three months.  The effects of the crisis are likely to persist for some time.”   Data to be released in the U.K. tonight include the May RICS house price balance followed by May consumer price inflation tomorrow, April DCLG U.K. house prices, and May Nationwide consumer confidence.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4220 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8295 level and was capped around the £0.8360 level.


The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.1350 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1490 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw May producer and import prices climb 0.3% m/m and 1.4% y/y, higher-than-expected.  Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand last week reported Swiss banks should be allowed to go bankrupt.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the US$ 1.1310 level.  The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3985 level while the British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6835 level.


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