The Euro surged early in the session on Monday as upbeat
feelings about the global recovery helped drive up demand for higher risk
assets. Todayâ€™s strong rally was a continuation of last weekâ€™s bottoming action
which was triggered by positive comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and
European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet.
Bernanke told the Senate last week that he believed that Europe has the money to protect its currency from
collapse. The market rallied on his comment because it meant that Europe would use all means to prevent sovereign debt
issues from escalating. Trichet said the ECB would not increase stimulus in the
economy. This meant the economy was strong enough to not require any additional
aid from the central bank. Both comments were supportive to the Euro.
Late in the session, the Euro broke from its high but still
managed to hold on to most of its gains. News of a downgrade of Greece debt by
Moodyâ€™s made weak longs nervous, triggering a profit-taking break. Many traders
feel that the break was unnecessary because the move by Moodyâ€™s was based on
old news. Investors also feel move optimistic about the Greeceâ€™s future
Technically, two potentially bullish scenarios are taking
place. From a daily standpoint, the main trend is down, but the currency was
able to pierce through a retracement zone at 1.2164 to 1.2233. This move most
likely took out stops on the way up. The main trend will turn up on a move
through the last swing top at 1.2453.
A late session sell-off took the market back under the Fib
retracement level at 1.2233. This could be a sign of a short-term top, but that
cannot be determined unless the 50% level at 1.2164 is violated. If a new
short-term range forms between 1.1876 to 1.2297, then look for a break back to
1.2087. Bullish traders will try to form a secondary higher bottom at this
price. If it holds then look for the start of a major rally.
Last weekâ€™s closing price reversal bottom at 1.1876 was confirmed
this morning. Based on this pattern, watch for the start of a 2 to 3 week
retracement with 1.2784 the next potential upside target.
In summary, the weekly chart is set up for a strong
retracement rally to 1.2784, provided the Euro holds a test of a minor
retracement level at 1.2087.
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