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Tuesday June 15, 2010 - 00:22:05 GMT
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E-mini S&P 500 Weakens after Testing 50% Level

The June E-mini S&P 500 sold off into the close after testing a key 50% level at 1105.75 and failing to take out the last main top at 1107.75. Today’s action clearly defined where the stops are likely hidden and where a trade is likely to trigger a breakout to the upside.


Although the market did not make a closing price reversal top, the pattern suggests that there may be another move to the downside before the market attempts another breakout to the upside. Based on the short-term range of 1041.25 to 1106.00, traders should look for a retracement back to 1073.75 to attract fresh buyers.


U.S. equity markets traded higher on Monday as investors went long on speculation that government reports this week would show the global economic recovery is back on track. Easing of tensions in Europe also triggered a short-covering rally in the Euro which helped to lead to increased demand for higher risk assets.


This week, U.S. traders are expecting to see positive reports in Industrial Production and factory output. Traders are expected to look at the long side of the market in anticipation of strong economic results from both of these reports.


Technically, the main trend will turn up on a move through 1107.75. This will set up the market for a further acceleration to the upside and a test of the .618 retracement level at 1122.00.


The June Euro surged early in the session on Monday as upbeat feelings about the global recovery helped drive up demand for higher risk assets. Today’s strong rally was a continuation of last week’s bottoming action which was triggered by positive comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet.


Bernanke told the Senate last week that he believed that Europe has the money to protect its currency from collapse. The market rallied on his comment because it meant that Europe would use all means to prevent sovereign debt issues from escalating. Trichet said the ECB would not increase stimulus in the economy. This meant the economy was strong enough to not require any additional aid from the central bank. Both comments were supportive to the Euro.


Late in the session, the Euro broke from its high but still managed to hold on to most of its gains. News of a downgrade of Greece debt by Moody’s made weak longs nervous, triggering a profit-taking break. Many traders feel that the break was unnecessary because the move by Moody’s was based on old news. Investors also feel move optimistic about the Greece’s future finances.


Technically, two potentially bullish scenarios are taking place. From a daily standpoint, the main trend is down, but the currency was able to pierce through a retracement zone at 1.2164 to 1.2233. This move most likely took out stops on the way up. The main trend will turn up on a move through the last swing top at 1.2453.


A late session sell-off took the market back under the Fib retracement level at 1.2233. This could be a sign of a short-term top, but that cannot be determined unless the 50% level at 1.2164 is violated. If a new short-term range forms between 1.1876 to 1.2297, then look for a break back to 1.2087. Bullish traders will try to form a secondary higher bottom at this price. If it holds then look for the start of a major rally.


Last week’s closing price reversal bottom at 1.1876 was confirmed this morning. Based on this pattern, watch for the start of a 2 to 3 week retracement with 1.2784 the next potential upside target.


In summary, the weekly chart is set up for a strong retracement rally to 1.2784, provided the Euro holds a test of a minor retracement level at 1.2087.






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