Tuesday June 15, 2010 - 04:01:18 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 15-Jun-2010 - 0358 GMT
The US Equities were mixed yesterday. The Dow (10190.89) erased about 1% of its early gains later in the day to close down 0.2%. The markets fell on the news of Moody's downgrade of Greece's Bonds to junk status. While below 10350, the Dow may move in the range of 10250-9900, before a fall towards 9500 in the coming weeks / months.
All Asians except the Nikkei (9861.87, down 0.18%) and the Hang Seng (20053.48, flat) are up today. The Nikkei may still fall towards 9000 in the coming weeks. The Shanghai is closed on account of Dragon Boat Festival. In India, the Sensex (17338.17) was up 1.60% and the Nifty (5197.70) was up 1.53% yesterday. The Sensex may move in the range of 16900-17400 before a fall towards 16000 in the coming weeks.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4513.80) is flat.
Crude (75.10) has come off from yesterday's high of 75.99 following the downgrading of Greece's bonds by the Moody's. Technically the Resistance at 76 which we have been mentioning for some time is holding and continuing to retain the downside pressure. We migh expect it to retain the range (70-76) in which it has been trading over the last few weeks. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1221.80) is continuing to be ranged between 1200-50 within its overall uptrend. We see a little chances of testing 1200 once again.
Moody's downgrading the Greece bonds has halted the upmove seen over the last few days. The Euro (1.2217) has come off from its high of 1.2298 and is now trading just above 1.22. A break below 1.22 might see 1.2130-00 today. Euro-Yen Cross (111.75) is trading lower following the fall in Euro. Dollar-Yen (91.46) is continuing to be ranged between 91-92. The 200-DMA (90.91) is a significant Support level to watch for which has been holding very well over the last few days.
The Pound (1.4748) is retaining it upside momentum and while above 1.47 there are good chances of further rise towards 1.4800-50. Aussie (0.8561) has come off sharply from yesterday's high of 0.8667. A strong break below 0.8550-00 might pull it further down towards 0.8400-8350. Dollar-Swiss (1.1409) though has bounced back from its low of 1.1351 taking Support from the 8-Week-MA (1.1348), is not showing much strength on its upmove. The outlook is mixed and the 200-Week-MA (1.1282) is a significant Support level to watch for on the downside.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1223 and the USD-SGD is trading near 1.3990. Dollar-Rupee has opened and trading higher at 46.59/60.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchaged at 0.54%. The 2Y yield was up 3bps to quote at 0.76% while the 10Y yield was unchanged at 3.26%.
The BOJ meeting is due today.
03:49 GMT BOJ Meeting
...Expected 0.10%...Previous 0.10%
08:30 GMT May UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 3.5%...Previous 3.7%
09:00 GMT EU Trade Bal
...Expected 1.7 Bln...Previous 0.6 Bln
13:00 GMT US May TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Expected $ 77.3 Bln...Previous $ 140.5 Bln
09:00 GMT EU May IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected 0.7%...Previous 1.3%
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