10:00 GMT- June 15 (global-view.com) Forex markets are heading into the open of N.Y. trade mixed. This is very much a price-driven market at the moment with no strong over-riding fundamental themes at the moment. Dealers are still keeping a close eye on the sovereign debt issues in Europe, but that theme has just about run its course. A developing issue in the more mature economies has been a growing worry about a second slowdown in many economies. Already the Obama administration is said to be pushing yet another economic stimulus bill in the Congress as it seems to feel that another slowdown is developing.
This has triggered a resumption of the risk trade in anticipation of future monetary accommodation. Equities seem very recently to have returned a firmer footing. This recovery has given the EUR a better tone, but we continue to feel that this optimism is only as good as the next headline.
The EURUSD is steady on the day and the GBPUSD is unchanged. The EURGBP is about even. Traders have been keeping a close eye on European sovereign debt situation and on the threat of forex intervention in the EUR.
In the GBP, the U.K. new government is weak. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.
The EURCHF is higher. SNB intervention tactics have changed, as recently the SNB has taken a strong stand. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.
The USDJPY is unchanged and the EURJPY cross is steady. Japanese public finances are a worry, however JGB bonds are mostly owned by Japanese. The government wants a lower exchange rate and has warned the markets about the JPY. It also has been pressing the BOJ to promote growth.
Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). The commodity currencies are mixed. RBA monetary policy is now steady, but the RBNZ is in a tightening mode. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25bps but sent dovish signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in.
Far East equities closed up. European bourses are better. U.S. equities are up. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.29%, +2 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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