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Tuesday June 15, 2010 - 20:49:12 GMT
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Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

Morning Report Wednesday 16 June 2010


News and views

Risk markets shrugged off the previous day's bearish Moody's/Greece news and pushed higher from the European open. The S&P500 is currently up 2.1%, back to 19 May levels, and breaking above the 200d moving average (the market has been fixated by this indicator for the past few weeks). The VIX (risk aversion) index moved 10% lower. The CRB commodities index rose 1.4%, oil surging 2.5%. There was no obvious catalyst for the move, US data mixed. Spain and Ireland's government tbill and bond issues were completed, but the bond markets had yet to price in the Greek downgrade (it was announced after the previous European close) so that yields for government debt surged: 10yr Greece up 74bp, Portugal 23bp, Ireland 21bp, and Spain 6bp (fresh two year high). As a comparison, Germany rose 4bp. US 10yr treasury bonds are 5bp higher in yield.

The USD index fell in line with the bullish risk sentiment. EUR rose from 1.2170 to 1.2350, the poor ZEW analyst survey hardly interrupting the rally. USD/JPY ground from 91.10 to 91.50.

AUD followed global sentiment and rose from 0.8510 to 0.8660, the second attempt on this resistance over the past two days. NZD didn't quite reach yesterday's height, rising from 0.6890 to 0.6995. AUD/NZD ground higher with improved global sentiment from 1.2340 to 1.2380.

US NY Fed index about steady at 19.6 in June. The last 2 monthly readings for the Empire State index have been down on the previous 3 months in the 20s and 30s, providing further evidence that the US industrial sector might be entering a period of moderating growth in the middle of 2010. In June, the detail showed orders up 3 pts to 18 (but still well below the recent 29 peak); shipments up 8 pts to 19 (from 32 peak) and jobs down 10 pts to 12.

US external sector update: Import prices fell 0.6% in May, due to lower petroleum prices; export prices rise 0.7%. In April, net long term capital flows into the US were $83bn although total net flows were less at $15bn.

US NAHB housing market index fell from 22 to 17 in June, the weakest reading for homebuilder sentiment since March and more evidence that the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit is weighing on housing activity.

Bank of Japan: no move in rates, but another fund supplying vehicle announced. "Today, the Bank decided, as a temporary measure, to introduce a new fund-provisioning framework to support, from the financial side, private financial institutions' efforts of their own accord toward strengthening the foundations for economic growth." This framework will allow for the provision of funds at the policy rate for terms up to one year that may be rolled over up to 3 times. We see this as another passive effort to stimulate the economy, as it relies on the banking system acting as an intermediary.

German ZEW analysts' survey plunges 17.1 pts to 28.7 in June. That is the eight fall recorded in the past 9 months, and the steepest since the dark days of late 2008. It indicates that analysts have sharply downgraded their growth expectations, most likely due to concern that German export markets elsewhere in Europe will be weakened by fiscal austerity plans; however the separate current index improved from -22 to -8, its highest since late 2008.

Euroland trade surplus EUR1.4bn in April, after a brief return to deficit in March. Exports fell 2.4% but imports were down by 3.5%.

UK CPI eases from 3.7% yr to 3.4% yr in May, due to last year's booze and fags excise increase dropping out of the annual pace, and with energy prices easing last month. The core CPI eased from 3.1% yr to 2.9% yr in May, adding weight to the view that April may have been the peak for the CPI this year.

UK house price update: The government's DCLG index showed 10.1% yr prices growth in April, while the RICS house price balance improved from 19% to 22% in May.

Canadian labour market productivity grew 0.7% in Q1, slower than Q4's 1.2% but those two quarters follow more than two years of almost persistent productivity decline from mid 2007. April manufacturing sales rose 0.2%, their eighth month running without a decline.


AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:  Commodities should be supported by the positive global tone today. AUD resistance at 0.8660 is pivotal, while for NZD it is 0.7020. Supports lie at 0.8500 and 0.6900 respectively.

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.







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