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Tuesday June 15, 2010 - 21:52:00 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (15 June 2010)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2350 level and was supported around the $1.2165 level.  There was a more constructive tone in the capital markets today and this propelled the common currency to its highest level since 1 June.  Data released in the U.S. today saw the May import price index decline 0.6% m/m and climb 8.6% y/y, lower-than-expected.  Also, the June Empire State manufacturing index improved to 19.57 from the prior reading of 19.11 while the June NAHB housing market index fell to +17 from the prior reading of +22.  Additionally, April total net long-term TICS flows fell to +US$ 15.0 billion from the revised prior reading of +US$ 26.0 billion while April net long-term TICS flows fell to +US$ 83.0 billion from the prior revised reading of +US$ 140.5 billion.  The Federal Reserve today sold US$ 1.15 billion in term deposits at auction today, the first test of a credit-tightening tool.  Dealers are watching the political drama in the U.S. where the New York Fed President may become a political apointee.  In eurozone news, the June EMU-16 ZEW survey fell to +18.8 from the prior reading of +37.6 while EMU-16 eurozone employment improved to +0.0% q/q and -1.2% y/y.  Also, the EMU-16 April trade balance fell to +€1.8 billion.  Other data saw the German June ZEW survey fall to +28.7 from the prior reading of +45.8 at the headline level and improve to -7.9 at the current situation level.  Traders are paying very close attention to Merkel’s German government that could collapse at any time. Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2330 level. 


¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥91.05 level and was capped around the ¥91.70 level.  As expected, Bank of Japan detailed plans to broaden its efforts to stimulate economic growth overnight.  BoJ Governor Shirakawa optimistically reported “We are seeing signs that the increase of exports and output it starting to spread to private domestic demand.”  The BoJ’s program involves a ¥3 trillion scheme designed to encourage greater lending to businesses.  The central bank also voted unanimously to keep the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.10%.  Data released in Japan overnight saw May Tokyo-area condominium sales climb 7.1% y/y.  Data to be released tonight include the April tertiary industry index and May machine tool orders.  The BoJ monthly report will be released tonight.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.03% to close at ¥9,887.89.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥113.05 level and was supported around the ¥110.85 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥135.65 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥81.00 figure. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8334 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8333.  China’s banking regulator warned there are growing credit risks in its real estate industry.  Data released in China last week saw the May producer price index up 7.1% y/y while May CPI was up a stronger-than-expected 3.1% y/y.  Also, May retail sales were up 18.7% y/y, May industrial production was up 16.5% y/y, and May money supply decreased year-over-year.  It was also reported last week that May new yuan loans fell to CNY 639.4 billion from the previous reading of CNY 774.0 billion. 


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