September Crude Oil in Position to Test 50% Level at 80.90
Demand for higher risk assets and the assumption the global
economic recovery is back on track helped to drive up September Crude Oil on
Tuesday. After forming a secondary higher bottom at 71.92 early last week, the
main trend turned up when the market crossed the last swing top at 77.84. The
chart is now indicating the market is on pace to test the 50% level at 80.90.
equity markets continued to rally, fueled by the belief that the financial
problems in the Euro Zone and the slow down in the global economy may be
diminishing. The main trend in the September E-mini S&P 500 turned up on
Tuesday on the move through the last main top at 1102.75. In addition, the
market closed over a 50% level at 1101.25, indicating that the market is likely
to continue to move higher toward a resistance cluster at 1117.50 to 1122.00.
The September Euro continued to rally on Tuesday as
short-traders covered positions on the assumption that the Euro Zone economy may
be stabilizing and the risk of a collapse in the currency is abating.
Investor confidence in the global economic recovery
continued to improve during todayâ€™s trading session, leading to an increase in
risk-based trading. The demand for greater risk encouraged traders to reverse
so-called flight to safety positions in the U.S. Dollar.
Technical factors are also driving the Euro higher after the
formation of a closing price reversal bottom last week. Now that this reversal
has been confirmed by this weekâ€™s follow-through rally, traders are becoming
confident that the current upside momentum may be strong enough to take out the
last main top at 1.2465. This action will turn the main trend up on the daily
chart.The weekly chart indicates that
this move may last 2 to 3 weeks with 1.2784 the minimum upside target.
Traders should not assume the market will rally without a
correction. The charts indicate that the bottom at 1.1884 has not been tested,
meaning that a 50% or more correction to set up a secondary higher bottom is
The September British Pound was able to recover from an
early morning set-back triggered by not-so-friendly U.K. inflation data. The easing of
tensions in the Euro Zone and greater demand for risky assets was the catalyst behind
The main trend turned up in the British Pound on Monday but
the rally has been labored because of 50% retracement resistance at 1.4808.
This market slowly probed this price level late Tuesday but was unable to
trigger stops or attract fresh buyers. Nonetheless, this price level remains an
important area to overcome. A sustained trader over 1.4808 tomorrow will set up
for an acceleration to the next key retracement level at 1.4945.
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