Wednesday June 16, 2010 - 03:41:57 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 16-Jun-2010 - 0339 GMT
Strong rise in the Dow (10404.77, +213.88, +2.10%) yesterday, overcoming earlier resistance near 10350. Further gains towards 10700 quite likely now. The market rose on a report by the New York Fed that a manufacturing index it follows rose again this month. More likely that the market has been bearish for quite some time now and has been wanting to cover some of the Shorts.
Naturally, Asia has followed suit and all indices are in the green now, trading 0.6-1.5% higher. Nikkei (10041) has a nice Double Bottom that can target 10500. Take a look at
The Sensex (17412.83) and Nifty (5222.35) are likely to rise further towards 17700 and 5300 respectively. Some resistance can come in there.
Crude (77.07) has risen sharply breaking above 76 following the sharp rise in US equity markets and the expectation that US Crude invetories data due today will show a drop in the inventories for the third consecutive week. Technically speaking Crude has broken above its two significant Resistances at 76 and 76.70 [38.2% retracement level of the fall from 147.27 (07-Jul-08) to 33.22 (12-Jan-09)]. While above 77, there are good chances of a rise towards 80-82 in the coming days. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1232.60), though continuing to trade above 1215 over the last one week, is not showing much strength on its upmove to see a strong break above 1250-70 Resistance region which still leaves the chances of testing 1200-1180 once again. However, the broader picture is continuing to remain bullish.
Recovery in the non-Dollar currencies is continuing. The Euro (1.2316) broke above 1.23 in late-US/ early Asian session today, to see a high near 1.2348. With this, the path is possibly cleared for a further rise towards 1.24, if not 1.25. The one-way consensus bearishness towards the Euro has, understandably, led to a short squeeze. Dollar-Yen (91.47) has been stable for the last few days and is likely to remain ranged between 90 and 92 for some time. This has led to a good rise in the Euro-Yen (112.67) which may now target 115.00 in rthe coming days.
The Pound (1.48) has also seen a strong rise and may target 1.49, maybe even 1.50 in the coming days. Dollar-Swiss (1.1307) has come off sharply yesterday, falling from a high near 1.1479, to a low near 1.1293. Another 100 pips can be lost from here.The Aussie (0.8634) has risen well from yesterday's low near 0.8505. It has a nice Double Bottom on the Daily chart, that can target 0.8750-8800.
In Asia, the Korean Won (1211.30) has gained a goodish bit over the last few days, with the USD-KRW rate coming down from a high near 1271.50 last Friday. Further fall towards 1190 is likely. USD-SGD is also trading lower near 1.3934 and may dip fruther towards 1.3825. Dollar-Rupee, which had closed near 46.5650 yesterday might fall towards 46.40-30.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.54%. The 2Y yield was down 1 bps to quote at 0.75% while the 10Y yield was up 4 bps to quote at 3.30%.
The concerns on Euro zone's debt crisis has eased slightly as the debt auction in Spain, Belgium and Ireland has received good response.
Yesterday, the BOJ left the interest rates unchanged at 0.10%. Chile has increased its interest rates for the first time since Sep-08 by 50 bps to 1% from its record low of 0.50%.
UK Cons Conf
...Actual 65...Previous 75
08:30 GMT UK Unemp
...Expected 8.0%...Previous 8.0%
09:00 GMT EU May CPI (YoY)
...Expected 0.8%...Previous 0.8%
13:15 GMT US May Industrial Production
...Expected 0.9%...Previous 0.8%
13:15 GMT US May Capacity Utilization
...Expected 74.6%...Previous 73.7%
12:30 GMT US May Housing Starts
...Expected 0.650 Mln...Previous 0.670 Mln
12:30 GMT US May Core PPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.2%
12:30 GMT US May Core PPI (YoY)
...Actual 0.10%...Previous 0.10%
May UK CPI Y/Y
...Actual 3.4%...Previous 3.7%
EU Trade Bal
...Actual 1.4 Bln...Previous 0.0 Bln
US May TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Actual $ 83.0 Bln...Previous $ 140.5 Bln
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