European Market Update: Concerns over Spain's financial system undermines sentiment (Trade the News)
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
European Market Update: Concerns over Spain's financial system undermines sentiment
***Economic Data*** - (JP) Japan May Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 192.5% v 191.8% prior - (SP) Spain Q1 Labor Costs Y/Y: 1.0% v 2.5% prior - (TU) Turkey May Consumer Confidence 86.6 v 85.8 - (AS) Austria May Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0% prior - (CZ) Czech Apr Current Account (CZK): 12.4B v -5.5Be - (IT) Italy May Final CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e - (IT) Italy May Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e - (UK) May Jobless Claims Change: -30.9K v -20.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 5.2% v 4.7%e - (UK) Apr Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.5e%; Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0%e - (UK) Apr ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 8.0%e - (SZ) Swiss Jun Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 17.5 v 40.5 prior; lowest reading since Jul 2009 - (EU) Euro-Zone May CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Q1 Euro-Zone Labor Costs Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e
***Fixed Income Auction results in Session*** - (SW) Sweden Debt Agency Bond auction results: *** Sold SEK625M in 3.5% 2039 bonds; avg yield 3.19%; Bid-to-cover: 1.0x ***Sold SEK2.0B in 5% 2020 bonds; avg yield 2.529%; Bid-to-cover:1.12 x - (GE) Germany sold â‚¬4.06B in 3% Jul 2020 Bunds; avg yield 2.67% v 2.75% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.4x prior - (UK) DMO sold Â£550M in 1.25% Index-linked 2017 Gilts; avg yield 0.328%; bid-to-cover: 2.5x v 1.6x prior - (PO) Portugal sold up to â‚¬718M in 9-month bills; avg yield 2.689% v 2.443% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 2.3x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Following the positive session in the US and Asia, most European equity markets opened slightly higher. The early gains were led by banks. However, as the session has progressed equities have moved off of their best levels weighed down by Spanish banks and the widening in the peripheral bond spreads.
- In Individual Stocks: Sainsbury [SBRY.UK]: In its Q1 update, company reported total revenue growth of 7% and SSS (ex fuel and inc VAT) increased 1.1% higher than estimates of 1.0%. Company continued to expect consumer environment to stay challenging. Expected extremely low growth levels and did not expect an improvement in consumer confidence for Q2. || RPC [RPC.UK] Reported Net profit of Â£13.2M better than year-ago loss of Â£7.7M. Revenues were Â£719.9M lower than year-ago figure of Â£769.1M. Stated that the main short term uncertainty continued to be the volume outlook although a further deterioration in activity levels was currently not anticipated. Noted encouraging trends in terms of volumes. || Volvo AV [VOLVB.SW]: Reported May group truck sales at 13.6K a slight increase from a month ago figures of 13K. Noted gradual improvement in North American demand. Asian deliveries grew 90% thanks to firmer economic upturn.
- Speakers: France Labor Minister Woerth revealed the country's pension reform. France sought to gradually raise the minimum retirement age to 60 from 62 by 2018 and raise the with-holding tax on investment income by 1% to fund pensions. He also proposed to raise the income tax rate for top earners to assist in fund the pension deficit and targeted to balance pension accounts by 2020 and align private and public pension regimes. Working longer is unavoidable. An unnamed France Official added tyat the pension reforms were expected to reduce deficit to GDP ratio by 0.5% by 2013 and by 1.9% by 2020 *** Fitch Director commented that a break up of the EU was a remote risk, but was not Fitch's central view *** China Vice PM reiterated its view that it firmly supported the Euro Zone as well as the IMF bailout of Greece. He did note that solving the sovereign debt crisis was a long term task and that China supported Greece's Gov't austerity plans to address the situation ***ECB's Stark reiterated the central bank view that no inflation risks were seen over the next two years (medium term) . he noted that the German Gov't was on the right path in regards to its austerity measures. The surge in the ECB deposit facility data showed that banks do not trust each other ***World bank commented that Russia 2010 economic recovery would be slower than prior forecasts before growth accelerated in 2011***German CSU Parliament leader Friedrich commented that EU aid to Spain was not "legally possible" ***Reportedly, Czech coalition parties agreed not to set euro adoption date for at this time** EU's Commissioner Rehn commented that Market turmoil might still derail the recovery of the economy
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The USD recovered from some of its luster as continued amid persistent speculation over Spain's banking system. European peripherals widened in session as the markets seemed to test the government resolve on potential turmoil. Speculators have set their sights on Spain. The Spain/German 10-year Gov't Bond premium hit fresh Euro launch record level as it moved beyond the 220bps. Other peripheral spreads followed in tandem with Portugal/German Gov Bond premium at 305bps, wider by almost 20bps and the Greek/German Gov Bond premium nearing 700bps area (wider by almost 30bps). EUR/USD back below the 1.23 handle after initially retesting the 1.2350 highs seen n Tuesday. USD/JPY at 91.70 and up around 20 pips from its Tokyo open.
- Geo-Political: The French government revealed its pension reforms. Labor Minister Woerth stated the government is to gradually propose increasing the minimum retirement age to 60 from 62 by 2018. Other proposals include raising the income tax rate for top earners to assist in funding the pension deficit, estimated to increase revenues by â‚¬3.7B. As a result of the new measures, the labor minister noted that working longer is unavoidable. The Reforms are expected to generate revenues between â‚¬3-4B in the short-term and â‚¬5B in 2020 ***Britain's largest trade union Unison sent a warning regarding possible limits and reduction in pay and pensions by the government. Unison does not intend to release its plans until after the emergency budget revealed on 22nd June.
In the Papers: In an article in the Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard commented that Spanish authorities have little to lose by publishing the data as the country's debt markets are mostly frozen. These were comments related the desires of Spanish officials to release the results to the EU's bank stress tests. He referred to Deutsche Bank CEO Ackermann warning last week that it would be very dangerous to publish the results of each bank on concerns that it would lead to a flight from weak lenders and set off a chain reaction. ***The Wall Street Journal reported today that company administrators in Europe are to announce a plan to accelerate the return of up to $22B in assets. Under the plan, the majority of unsecured creditor claims will be agreed to by the end of 2010 and cash distributions will be made in 2011. Lehman's European unit has about 6,500 unsecured creditors. Note on 24th November, it was reported that Lehman's administrators for the firm's European unit disclosed claims against the US parent company may total $150B.
- European Peripherals: El Economista reported that the EU, IMF and US Treasury were drafting a liquidity plan for Spain which involved a credit line of up to â‚¬250B. The purpose of the plan was to avoid a rescue plan similar to that offered to Greece. On Tuesday, a spokesman for the Spanish government said talks between Spain's PM and IMF head Strauss-Kahn for Friday were not connected with media reports that Spain might seek a Greek-like bailout. In a follow-up an EU spokesperson denied press speculation that the EU, IMF and US were preparing credit line for Spain
***Notes/Observations: - Markets appear to be forcing the issue on Spain despite repeated denials of any EU, IMF or US aid package for the country - French government revealed its pension reforms
***Looking Ahead*** - (RU) Russia May Industrial Production M/M: % v -1.5%e; Y/Y: % v 10.0%e - (IS) Israel Q1 Preliminary GDP Annualized: No est v 3.3% prior - (BR) Brazil May CAGED Formal Job Creation: 250.0Ke v 305.1K prior - (IS) Israel Jun Inflation Forecast: No est v 2.7% prior - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 11th: No est v -12.2% - 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 1.5%e v 1.1% prior - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Retail Sales M/M: -1.5%e v -1.6% prior; Y/Y: 10.1%e v 15.7% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Apr Current Account: -â‚¬650Me v -â‚¬559M prior; Trade Balance: -â‚¬410Me v -â‚¬514M prior - 8:00 (GE) German Parliament budget committee discusses Euro rescue fund - 8:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Report - 8:30 (US) May Producer Price Index M/M: -0.5%e v -0.1%; PPI Ex Food&Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior - 8:30 (US) May Housing Starts: 648Ke v 672K prior; Building Permits: 625Ke v 610K prior (revised) - 9:15 (US) May Industrial Production: 0.9%e v 0.8% prior; Capacity Utilization: 74.5%e v 73.7% prior - 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly energy inventories: Crude: -1.2Me; Gasoline:+500Ke; Distillate: +1Me; Utilization: 89.1% - 11:35 (CA) Bank of Canada's Carney - 13:15 ECB's Bini Smaghi speaks in NY - 13:30 EU Socialists and Conservatives hold separate per-EU Summits - 14:15 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks in NY - 15:45 (UK) BOE's King speaks in London ** Reminder: EU Summit in Brussels on Jun 17th-18th
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.