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Wednesday June 16, 2010 - 11:46:05 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 16/06/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis June 16, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims
Traders await the US Initial Jobless Claims. It is a seasonally adjusted
measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for
the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the
Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of
jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a
series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of
at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job
growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should
be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a future
reading of 450.00K.
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.2254,
and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2295 and came very
close to the second suggested target 1.2352, stopping only 4 pips
before it (yesterdayâ€™s high was 1.2348 ). The Euro proved that it is
still capable of going higher, which created a small surprise for us.
Yesterdayâ€™s top came very close to this monthâ€™s top, which was reached
on the first day of it: 1.2352. This proves how important this
resistance is, that is why it will be our resistance of the day. After
hitting yesterdayâ€™s top, the price retreated to 1.2307. This retreat,
from a well known resistance & a target area means that the â€śhotâ€ť
rise for the Euro is going cold! If we break the short term support
1.2307, the Euro will probably give up the latest gains. And it will
target the ideal correction targets for the whole rise from 1.1875,
which are 1.2167 & 1.2056. On the other hand, the resistance is at
1.2352, and as long as we are below it, dropping more & more from
yesterdayâ€™s top will be expected. But if we break it we will target the
important 1.2452, and later 1.2519.
â€˘ 1.2307: important intraday support.
â€˘ 1.2167: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from last weeks low
to yesterdayâ€™s high.
â€˘ 1.2056: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from last weeks low
to yesterdayâ€™s high.
â€˘ 1.2352: June 1st high.
â€˘ 1.2452: the descending trend line from Apr 14th high.
â€˘ 1.2519: May 6th high.
Dollar/Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 91.47,
but it did not make it to the suggested target 91.91 (the high at the
moment of preparing this report is 91.73). The most important technical
event for the past 24 hours was the fact that the ascending trend line
from May 20th low, is now at yesterdayâ€™s low 91.06. This makes this
support the single most important support without a shadow of a doubt!
It seems as if we are about to test it, and we suggested keeping an eye
at this pair as it gets closer to this level, because this very test is
what will determine and set the short term direction. If we break 91.06
the price will drop hard, to 89.81 first, and then to 88.96, both levels
are significant and critical support levels. The resistance is provided
by short term Fibonacci 61.8% level, at 91.70. If we break this
resistance, we will be capable of penetrating 92.07 which stopped us a
couple of times, and we will target 92.56 & 93.38.
â€˘ 91.06: the rising trend line from May 20th low. The single most
important support for the short term.
â€˘ 89.81: May 26th low.
â€˘ 88.96: May 20th low.
â€˘ 91.70: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€˘ 92.56: Apr 13th low.
â€˘ 93.38: Jan 7th high.
trading analysis written by Munther
Marji for Forexpros.
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash
Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be
suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether
trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge,
and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial
investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to
change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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