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Wednesday June 16, 2010 - 15:43:51 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Wednesday, June 16, 2010 11:36:28 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -22 S&P -1.8 NASDAQ +1

***Economic data***
- (IS) Israel Q1 Preliminary
GDP Annualized: 3.6% v 3.3% prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 11th: +17.7% v -12.2% prior
- (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 1.3% v 1.5%e
- (BR) Brazil Apr Retail Sales M/M: -3.0% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: 9.1% v 10.1%e
- (PD) Poland Apr Current Account: -€424M v -€650Me; Trade Balance: -€ v -€410Me
- (US) May Producer Price Index M/M: -0.3% v -0.5%e; PPI Ex Food&Energy M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e
- (US) May Housing Starts: 593K v 648Ke; Building Permits: 574K v 625Ke
- (US) May Industrial Production: 1.2% v 0.9%e; Capacity Utilization: 74.7% v 74.5%e
- (US) DOE Weekly energy inventories: Crude: +1.7M v -1.2Me; Gasoline: -630K v +500Ke; Distillate: +1.8M v +1Me; Utilization: 87.9% v 89.1%

- US equity indices opened lower this morning after two consecutive days of higher opens. Mixed economic data is providing both bulls and bears with ammunition. The May industrial production data was better than expected, and capacity utilization rose to its highest level since October 2008. However, the May housing starts fell more than expected, to a five-month low, confirming expectations that the first-time homebuyer tax credit expiration would have a significant impact on the industry. FedEx and Nokia weighed on equity sentiment early but prices are holding up fairly well led by gains in the financial and energy sectors. EUR/USD has broken above 1.23 after a flurry of rumors regarding negotiations toward an EU debt support plan for
Spain. After slipping down towards the $76 handle before the open, front month crude is headed back toward $77 and the unchanged mark though weekly DOE inventory data did producing some selling initially. Treasury prices have been giving back some early gains as equity markets have managed to hold onto most of the last two session's advances. The 10-year yield is moving back towards 2.3% after dipping below 3.25% earlier.

- Selected banking names gained slightly this morning (before dropping into the red) following news that Senator Lincoln confirmed yesterday evening that she would be "open to suggestions" on her bank derivatives business proposals. It appears likely that some form of
Lincoln's amendment requiring banks to spin off derivatives desks will make it into the final financial regulatory overhaul; looks like any "compromise" would involve extending the deadline by which banks would have to divest their derivative desks. Also note that GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have finally delisted their shares from the NYSE, cancelling what had become a sort of casino table game for day traders.

- FedEx reported in-line Q4 earnings results this morning, with revenue a bit ahead of the Street's expectations. However, the firm's guidance for next quarter was well below par, while its initial look at FY11 was also soft. Executives did not dwell on the firm's weak guidance on the conference call, noting only that they expect a "very good year" in 2011. More guidance calls from major names are moving the market. US-listed ADRs of Nokia are down 10% this morning after cut its devices sales outlook for Q2 below its prior guidance. The firm cited a much sharper competitive environment, particularly at the high-end of the market, and shifts in product mix towards somewhat lower gross margin products. Scotts Miracle Grow trimmed its revenue outlook for the full year on tighter consumer demand, sending shares of SMG down 5%. Fast food name Sonic offered disappointing full-year earnings projections and a broadly negative SSS outlook for the second half of the year on weakening consumer conditions. On the positive side, PPG Industries guided above estimates for its Q2 earnings on strong volume growth, especially in emerging markets. Shares of
PPG opened up 4%, before dropping to 2%.

- Rumors that the EU was preparing some sort of large financing package for
Spain made the rounds early in the European session, prompting denials from a broad range of Spanish and European officials. Then just before the US open, a German press article stated that ECB Chief Trichet was demanding a clear commitment from EU government for aid to Spain in case its access to capital markets stumbles. EUR/USD has been hovering around the 1.23 area, within its recent retracement highs made earlier this week. USD/JPY locked in a 91 to 92 range.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:35 (CA) Bank of Canada's Carney
- 12:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Report
- 13:15 ECB's Bini Smaghi speaks in NY
- 13:30 EU Socialists and Conservatives hold separate per-EU Summits
- 14:15 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks in NY
- 15:45 (UK) BOE's King speaks in London
** Reminder: EU Summit in Brussels on Jun 17th-18



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AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
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