Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (16 June 2010)
The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2255
level and was capped around the $1.2350 level.The common currency moved off of intraday lows during the North American
session as U.S. equities reversed course and most of their intraday losses
evaporated.European Central Bank member
Quaden said the eurozone is unlikely to encounter a double-dip recession while
Bank of Israel Governor Fischer suggested some countries may not remain in the
eurozone.The Spanish government denied
rumours that Spain requires assistance with external finance.ECB member Gonzalez-Paramo called for a
revival of the securitization market in the eurozone and ECB member Ordonez
said bank restructuring will be complete before summer.The ECB again failed to get any bids in a
seven-day U.S. dollar term auction, the third consecutive time this has
happened, and this underscores the comparative attractiveness of swap
deals.The European Union today called
on countries to reduce their deficits, adding a ‚Äúcold shower‚ÄĚ consolidation
plan may be required in some instances.ECB
member Noyer called for more exchange rate flexibility and Germany‚Äôs Bundesbank
reported banks‚Äô capital requirements are likely to increase significantly.Data released in the eurozone today saw May
EMU-16 consumer price inflation increase 0.1% m/m and 1.6% y/y at the headline
level and 0.8% y/y at the core level.The ECB will publish its June monthly report tomorrow.In
U.S. news, data released today saw MBA mortgage applications climb 17.7%
while May housing starts were off 10.0% to an annualized 593,000 units and
building permits were off 5.9% m/m to an annualized 574,000 units.Also, May headline producer price inflation
was off 0.3% m/m and 5.3% y/y and the ex-food-and-energy component was up 0.2%
m/m and 1.3% y/y.Additonally, May
industrial production was up 1.2% with capacity utilization stronger at
74.7%.May consumer price inflation data
will be released tomorrow.There is
speculation that Fed officials may reduce their forecasts for U.S. economic
growth on account of European economic woes when policymakers convene next
week.In April, Fed officials estimated
the economy would expand between 3.2% and 3.7% in 2010.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested bids around the ¬•91.10 level and was capped around
the ¬•91.80 level. Bank of Japan kept its
economic assessment unchanged overnight after improving its assessment in May
following better capital spending and foreign trade.The central bank reported Japan‚Äôs economy is
evidencing a ‚Äúmoderate economy‚ÄĚ and said the ‚Äúdegree of severity has eased
somewhat‚ÄĚ in employment and income conditions.The yen‚Äôs gains today were largely precipitated by renewed concerns over
Europe‚Äôs sovereign debt struggles. Yesterday, BoJ unveiled details regarding a ¬•3
trillion lending program to stimulate the economy and counter deflation.Data released in Japan overnight saw the
April tertiary industry index improve to +2.1% from the revised prior reading
of -2.7% while May machine tool orders were up 192.5% y/y.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.81% to
close at ¬•179.26.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency
tested offers around the ¬•111.70 level and was capped around the ¬•113.30 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•134.50 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•81.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8334 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8333. It is being reported that China‚Äôs holdings of
U.S. assets may now be at or near all-time highs.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested
bids around the US$ 1.4745 level and was capped around the US$ 1.4830 level.New U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne
announced Bank of England will obtain new powers to prevent financial crisis
and reduce credit risk.Osborne‚Äôs first ‚ÄúMansion
House‚ÄĚ speech is scheduled for tonight and more information about the U.K.
economy may be forthcoming.Osborne is
expected to give the BoE more responsibility for macro prudential
supervision.Former BoE Chief Economist
Vickers will lead a new panel to review the U.K. banking sector.Data released in the U.K. today saw the May
claimant count rate decline to 4.6% as the jobless claims were off 30,900.The April ILO unemployment rate ticked lower
to 7.9%.The euro came off vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8285 level and was capped around the ¬£0.8335
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested
bids around the CHF 1.1275 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1340 level.Swiss national bank will released its
interest rate decision tomorrow and is expected to keep its three-month Swiss
franc Libor target rate at 0.25%.Data
released today saw the June ZEW survey decline sharply to 17.5 from 40.5 and
data to be released tomorrow include Q1 industrial production.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.1470 level.The euro came off vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency
tested bids around the CHF 1.3870 level while the British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested
bids around the CHF 1.6685 level.
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