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Thursday June 17, 2010 - 03:42:14 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 17-Jun-2010 - 0340 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Disappointment with the Housing Starts yesterday (+590K) and poorer than expected earnings forecast by Fed Ex kept stocks subdued, but the Dow managed to close slightly higher at 10409.46, comfortably above the 200-day MA at 10320. While above 10320, it may go up to 10550 in the next few days.

The Asians are mixed today. The Nikkei (10025.02, down 0.42%) may see some rally towards 10400-50 and the Shanghai (2574.62, up 0.18%) may move towards 2750 on a break above 2575-600 in the coming weeks. In India, the Sensex (17462.87) ended up 0.29% yesterday. The Markets may move up towards 17600-700 before it sees some strong Resistance in the coming days.

COMMODITIES
Crude (77.16) is continuing to trade higher amid of mixed economic and inventory data release yesterday. The EIA's data release showed an unexpected increase of 1.7 million barrels against the expected drop of 1.2 million barrels in the US Crude inventories. The gasoline stocks fell 700,000 barrels. Support is seen at 76 and while above 76 we might see further rise towards 78.00-50 in the coming days. Note that the 21-Week-MA is at 78.04 and the 21-MA on the 3-Day chart is at 78.43. To see the above mentioned 21-MAs on the Crude line chart click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudema.shtml#ma

Gold (1233.40) is continuing to be ranged between 1215-40. With lack of strength on its upmove above 1200, the near term outlook is mixed while the broader picture continues to remain bullish.


CURRENCIES
Disappointment with the Housing Starts yesterday (+590K) and poorer than expected earnings forecast by Fed Ex kept stocks subdued, but the Dow managed to close slightly higher at 10409.46, comfortably above the 200-day MA at 10320.


Fresh strength in the Dollar overnight, especially against the European currencies. The Euro (1.2275) seems to be tired now, with Resistance at 1.2350-70, and may succumb to gravity today. Target 1.22. The Pound (1.4705) has seen a sharp fall in the late US/ early Asian session today, coming down from a high near 1.4855 yesterday. Further dip to 1.46 possible. The Swissy (1.1315) has also weakened a bit, with USD-CHF bouncing from a low near 1.1250 yesterday.

Dollar-Yen (91.30) continues to be absolutely rangebound, trading between 91.10 and 91.80. Mildly bullish while Support at 91.00 holds. The Aussie (0.8607) also seems to be finding Resistance in the 0.8650-60 region in the near term, but it also has Support at 0.8580. Expect a range of 0.8550-8700 through today.

Some strength is being seen in Dollar against the Asians also today. The USD-KRW (1216) has moved up from the lows near 1210-09 seen over the last two days. A high near 1228.80 has been seen so far today. Similarly, USD-SGD (1.3960) has moved up further today, after having hit a low of 1.3879 on Tuesday. Overall, the strength in the Asian currencies over the last week or so should be seen as health correction of the new weakening trend that had started earlier in late April/ early May.

Dollar-Rupee, which had closed at 46.55 yesterday, might move up towards 46.65-70 today.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.54%. The 2Y and 10Y yields fell 3 bps and 5 bps each to quote at 0.72% and 3.25% respectively.

The SNB meet is scheduled today and is expected to leave the interest rates unchanged at 0.25%.


DATA TODAY
12:30 GMT SNB Meeting
...Expected 0.25%...Previous 0.25%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/snb.shtml

12:30 GMT US Current Account Balance
...Expected $ -120 Bln...Previous $ -116 Bln

12:30 GMT US May Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.0%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/uscpi.shtml

14:00 GMT May US Philifed Index
...Expected 21.3...Previous 21.4

DATA YESTERDAY
------------
UK Cons Conf
...Actual 65...Previous 75

UK Unemp
...Actual 7.9%...Previous 8.0%

EU May CPI (YoY)
...Actual 0.8%...Previous 0.8%

US May Industrial Production
...Actual 1.2%...Previous 0.8%

US May Capacity Utilization
...Actual 74.7%...Previous 73.7%

US May Housing Starts
...Actual 0.590 Mln...Previous 0.670 Mln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ushsgstarts.shtml

US May Core PPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.2%...Previous 0.2%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usppi.shtml

US May Core PPI (YoY)
...Actual 1.3%...Previous 1.0%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usppi.shtml

 

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