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Thursday June 17, 2010 - 10:09:50 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 17/06/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis June 17, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: BoC Gov Carney Speaks
Canadian traders await the speech by governor Carney, to take place
tomorrow, June 18th. Mark Carney, Bank of Canada governor, 2008-2015. As
head of Canada's central bank, which controls key short term interest
rates, Carney has more influence over the Canadian dollar's value than
any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues
regarding future monetary policy. His comments may determine a
short-term positive or negative trend.
With stunning accuracy, The Euroâ€™s rising move stopped at the resistance
specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.2352 (yesterdayâ€™s high was 1.2351),
and then, just as expected, the drop began. The price then broke the
support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.2307, only to settle for
1.2253! The rising move halted very close to this monthâ€™s top, which was
reached on the first day of it: 1.2352. This proves how important this
resistance is, that is why it will be our resistance of the day,
especially after it managed to send the price down for almost 100 pips.
This retreat, from a well known resistance & a target area means
that the â€śhotâ€ť rise for the Euro is going cold! If we break the short
term support 1.2255, the Euro will probably give up the latest gains.
And it will target the ideal correction targets for the whole rise from
1.1875, which are 1.2169 & 1.2057. On the other hand, the resistance
is at 1.2352, and as long as we are below it, dropping more & more
from yesterdayâ€™s top will be expected. But if we break it, we will
target the important 1.2452, and later 1.2519.
â€˘ 1.2255: Asian session low.
â€˘ 1.2169: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from last weeks low
to yesterdayâ€™s high.
â€˘ 1.2057: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from last weeks low
to yesterdayâ€™s high.
â€˘ 1.2352: June 1st high.
â€˘ 1.2452: the descending trend line from Apr 14th high.
â€˘ 1.2519: May 6th high.
With supernatural accuracy, the Dollar/Yen stopped at the support
specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 91.06 (yesterdayâ€™s low was 91.07), and
traded above it for the whole time after. Stopping here is in fact a
test at the ascending trend line from May 20th low, a very accurate test
actually (please refer to the attached chart). This makes this support
the single most important support without a shadow of a doubt! This line
is currently running at 91.17, and it will be our support of the day.
And after such an accurate test, we suggest keeping an eye on this pair,
because this very test is what will determine and set the short term
direction. If we break 91.17 the price will drop hard, to 89.81 first,
and then to 88.96, both levels are significant and critical support
levels. The resistance is provided by the falling trend line from this
weekâ€™s high, which is at 91.65. If we break this resistance, we will be
capable of penetrating 92.07 which stopped us a couple of times, and we
will target 92.56 & 93.38. It seems like we are going to enjoy an
exciting end to this week with the USDJPY.
â€˘ 91.17: the rising trend line from May 20th low. The single most
important support for the short term.
â€˘ 89.81: May 26th low.
â€˘ 88.96: May 20th low.
â€˘ 91.65: the falling trend line from Mondayâ€™s top.
â€˘ 92.56: Apr 13th low.
â€˘ 93.38: Jan 7th high.
trading analysis written by Munther
Marji for Forexpros.
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.
You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market
data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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