***Economic data*** - (IS) Israel May Leading Indicator M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior - (PD) Poland May Avg Gross Wages M/M: -1.5% v -2.0%e; Y/Y: 4.8% v 3.8%e - (PD) Poland May Employment M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e - (RU) Russia May Industrial Production M/M: 1.2% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: 12.6% v 10.0%e - (US) May Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; CPI Ex Food&Energy M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; CPI NSA: 218.178 v 218.155e - (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 472K v 450Ke; Continuing Claims: 4.571M v 4.500Me v 4.462M prior - (US) Q1 Current Account: -$109.0B v -$121.9Be v -$115.6B prior - (CA) Canada Apr Wholesale Sales M/M: -0.3% v 0.3%e - (US) Jun Philadelphia Fed: 8.0 v 20.0e - (US) May Leading Indicators: 0.4% v 0.4%e - EIA Natural Gas Inventories: + BCF v. +85 TO +90 BCF Estimated range
- Positive investor sentiment is waning in the wake of sour US economic data. Both initial and continuing weekly jobless claims rose over last week's figures (which were revised higher), creating even more doubt over the US employment picture, while the June Philadelphia Fed Index came in way below expectations. Note that an uptick in risk aversion is not hitting the euro this morning, breaking a trend that has dominated trade for the last six months or so; EUR/USD shot straight up earlier in the session, topping out above the key 1.24 level as European leaders meet for a summit today to discuss the debt crisis and talk circulates about the EU disclosing results of their bank stress tests. Gold is benefitting from the flight to safety, with the front-month contract nearing all-time highs above $1,250, while front-month crude is down a buck, trading in the $76 handle. Treasury markets have experienced an influx bids pushing the 10-year yield back to 3.2%.
- A handful of consumer-facing firms reported strong earnings yesterday evening and this morning. Supermarket chain Kroger beat expectations and reiterated its FY11 outlook. Shares of KR are up 4%, but off their highs. Smithfield Foods was a bit ahead of expectations, although it offered some cautious comments on its conference call. SFD is down 5% and heading lower. J.M. Smucker was way ahead of EPS expectations, thanks to respectable gains in gross margins. SJM is up 7%. Pier One Imports reported a quarterly profit, against expectations for a loss. PIR rose as much as 8% on the positive data, although the name is at session lows around +2% mid morning. Winnebago crushed earnings expectations, although the outperformance was mainly due to a one-time tax benefit. The firm's revenue were a bit below par. WGO is up more than 10%, but well off its highs. Health insurance giant Aetna is up 3% this morning after saying it would exceeded consensus estimates in its Q2 report.
- The main currency focus this morning has been on the JPY related pairs, with dealers eyeing an hourly technical break below 90.90 in USD/JPY, which could set up for a retest of the pivotal 88.00 support. EUR/USD lingered around the 1.24 handle throughout the NY morning with euro buy stops rumored said to be building above the 1.2430 area. There was earlier chatter of a Far East central bank offering EUR/USD at 1.2400 level. AUD/USD was at one-month highs approaching the 0.87 handle before consolidating.
***Looking Ahead*** - 12:00 (TU) Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Benchmark Repo rate at 7.00% and Maintain the Overnight Borrowing Rate at 6.50% - 16:00 (BR) Brazil May Tax Collections (BRL): 60.5Be v 70.9B prior - (AR) Argentina Jun Consumer Confidence: No est v 48.6 prior
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