Friday June 18, 2010 - 03:39:47 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 18-Jun-2010 - 0338 GMT
The US Equities were up in Green in the later trading hours of the session led by a rally in Technology Companies yesterday. The Dow (10434.17) was up 0.24% and the S&P 500 (1116.04) was up 0.13%. The Dow may face some Resistance in the region of 10500-50 in the coming days.
The Asians are weak today. The Nikkei (9992.32) and the Shanghai (2559.52) are flat today. In India, the Sensex (17616.69) closed up 0.88% and the Nifty (5274.85) closed up 0.79%, led by a late rally in Capital and Energy stocks, yesterday. The Sensex may see some Resistance near 17700-50 in the next few days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4571) is up 0.53% today.
Crude (76.48) has come off from Wednesday's high of 78.13. The disappointing US economic data release yesterday pull down the price. 76 is the immediate Support level to watch for and a break below it might pull it down towards 74-73. A strong upmove might also be restricted as we see significant Resistance in the 78.00-50 region. Note that 78.04 is the 21-Week-MA and 78.40 is the 21-MA on the 3-day chart. To see the 21-MAs on the 3-day and the weekly line chart click on the following link:
Gold (1244.50) has risen sharply. However a strong break above 1250 was not seen and it has come off from the high of 1251.10. A weekly close above 1230 might increase the chances of witnessing a strong break above 1250-70 Resistance region in the coming days. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
A successful bond sale of EUR 3.5 bln by Spain yesterday caused the Dollar to give back most of its gains yesterday. The Euro (1.2385) is retaining its recent strength, and threatens to rise further towards 1.2450-2500. Dollar-Yen (90.90) trades near the lower end of its recent 90.80-91.80 range. A rally back towards 91.50 is possible.
The Pound (1.4815) has also managed to claw back after having fallen to as low as 1.4645 yesterday. Further rise towards 1.4950 possible. Dollar-Swiss (1.1120) fell dramatically yesterday as the Swiss National Bank, in its meeting, did not reiterate its resolve to fight the Franc's gains. As such USD-CHF might find sellers coming in on intra-day rallies to 1.12.
The Australian Dollar (0.8690) has been gaining for the last several days and might target 0.88 if immediate Resistance at 0.8720 is broken.
In Asia, USD-KRW has dipped quite a bit after having rallied yesterday. A further dip to important Support at 1191 might be possible. USD-SGD (1.3910) too has dipped, but may find Support near 1.3845. Dollar-Rupee (46.30) had closed just above its 200-day Moving Average at 46.27 yesterday, but is in danger of falling towards 46.13-00 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.54%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 1 bps and 5 bps each to quote at 0.71% and 3.20% respectively.
Yesterday, the SNB left the interest rates unchaged at 0.25%.
Spain's bond auction is easing the Euro zone's debt concerns as it has sold EUR 3.5 bln in its bond auction.
No major data release today
...Actual 0.25%...Previous 0.25%
US Current Account Balance
...Actual $ -109 Bln...Previous $ -101 Bln
US May Core CPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.1%...Previous 0.0%
May US Philifed Index
...Actual 8.0...Previous 21.4
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