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Friday June 18, 2010 - 10:34:53 GMT
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European Market Update: Markets might question how tough the terms of the European Banking tests would be (Trade the News)

Friday, June 18, 2010 5:54:03 AM

 European Market Update: Markets might question how tough the terms of the European Banking tests would be


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Cabinet Jun Economic Report: Raises economic assessment for the first time in three months
- (GE) Germany May Producer Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.8%e
- (FR) France Q1 Final Wages Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.7% prior
- (HU) Hungary Apr Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 1.1% v 3.2%e
- (AS) Austria Apr Producer Price Index M/M: 0.8% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.5% v 0.4% prior
- (NV) Netherlands Apr Consumer Spending: 0.2% v 0.7% prior
- (NV) Netherlands Jun Consumer Confidence: -18 v -16 prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Orders M/M: 4.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 20.6% v 13.5%e
- (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Sales M/M: 0.5% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.3% prior
- (UK) May Major banks Mortgage Approvals: 51K v 50Ke
- (UK) May Public Finances (PSNCR): £12.0B v £20.5Be; Net Borrowing: £16.0B v £18.0Be
- (UK) May Preliminary M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.2%e
- (MA) Malaysia May CPI Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (SZ) Swiss KOF Jun Economic Forecasts: Lowers its 2011 GDP and Inflation views

- Equities: European equities indices opened the session flat to higher, following mixed trading in Asia. Earlier gains were supported by shares of Porsche, SocGen, Santander and BP. As of 5:36 EST, markets are off of their best levels. Ahead of today's session, equities were on pace for the 8th straight session of gains on the recent recovery in risk appetite and gains in the Euro. Euro Stoxx 50 Index +0.2% at 2,734; DAX Index +0.5% at 6,224; CAC-40 Index +1.3% at 3,684 and FTSE 100 Index +0.4% at 5,274.

- In Individual Stocks: Ipsen [IPN.FR] is trading down 20% at the time of writing as its partner Roche announced an amendment to trial protocols for the taspoglutide phase III program. Now it expects a minimum delay of 12-18 months. || Novartis [NOVN.SZ] released phase II results for ACZ885 which provided highly statistically significant risk reduction of acute flares in gout patients.|| Porsche [PAH3.GE] reported 9-month post-tax loss of €700M worse than profit reported a year ago at €4.2B. Revenues were higher at €5.2B vs last year figure of €4.7B. The company Guided FY10 loss at less than €1B compared to analysts estimates of €346M. It had previously seen a loss in the low single digit billion-euro range.

- Speakers: Japan's June Cabinet Report raised its economic assessment and noted that the economy was rebounding (the first upgrade in three months). It noted that although the economy had been picking up steadily and the foundation for a self-sustaining recovery was being laid, it remained in a difficult situation such as the high unemployment rate *** IEA's Tanaka commented that downside risk to global economy could cause IEA to lower 2010 forecasts on oil demand *** Russia President Medvedev stated that the forecast for the country's 2011 budget deficit to GDP ratio was at 4% and move lower to 3% in 2012. He warned that mild forms of protectionism could replace liberalism, while also saying there could return to discussion of tax cuts for business in coming years depending on economic conditions. Medvedev commented that Russia would continue talks with China on alternative reserve currencies. He did note that the USD was the strongest reserve currency at this time, and said discussions were centering on full yuan convertibility. *** ECB's Draghi commented that Italy would publish its bank stress tests. He reiterated that more budget policy coordination was needed and again warned against protectionism. ***Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announced that it would sell a new benchmark 10-year Bono via syndicate in Q3 and planned to sell five regular bond auctions during that period. ***Finland PM Vanhanen submits resignation to president (as expected) ahead of planned surgery ***India Central Bank Head Subbarao stated that the RBI was calibrating its exit from a loose monetary policy stance and noted that measures taken on liquidity should suffice. The RBI was watching inflation carefully and stated that headline inflation was faster than anticipated. The RBI might review its 2011 inflation target at its July policy meeting. ***ECB's Trichet stated that too rapid overall credit growth should always be a warning signal for Central Banks. He stressed that banks should not focus on short-term profit but on helping economy. He reiterated view that interest rates were appropriate and bond purchases were being sterilized ***Swiss KOF Economic institute issued a mixed economic report. The KOF raised 2010 GDP forecast 1.8% v 1.7% prior while lowering the 2011 GDP forecast 1.6% v 2.2% prior. The KOF trimmed 2011 inflation expectations to 0.9% from 1.0% seen back in March but raised its 2010 inflation view to 1.0% v 0.9% prior.

- Currencies/Fixed Income: GBP/USD extended its recent gains, testing its best level in five weeks around the 1.4885 level after UK May public finances came in better than expected. The pair was approaching the NY morning around the 1.4825 area. EUR/USD remained steady around 1.2400 area for the bulk of the session. Euro buy stops are rumored to be building above the 1.2430 area protected by continuing chatter of a Far East central bank offering euros ahead of that key resistance. The JPY maintain a steady tone as well with USD/JPY holding below the 91 handle. EUR/CHF near fresh all-time lows above the 1.4730 level as the CHF continued to benefit from the recent SNB remarks that deflationary pressures were subsiding. The USD was off its best level as the NY morning approached as dealers began to question how tough the terms of the European banking tests would be.

- Geo-Political: BT Group urged the Communications Workers Union (CWU) to postpone strike ballot and return to formal negotiations. Earlier during the session, the union's Deputy Secretary General stated that he expects CWU to vote in favor of the strike regarding wages. The union has prepared for labor actions for a significant period of time. ***It was reported that Greece's Civil Servants' Confederation union (ADEDY) to participate in strike 29th of June. Note on 17th of June, Greece's largest union, GSEE, was also reported to plan a strike scheduled for June 29. Both unions have a combined membership of more than 1.3M. This announcement will be the 5th labor strike for Greece this year ***Dutch Labour Leader reportedly said that it was not interested in establishing a coalition with Liberals and Christian Democrats. Back on the 20th of February, the Netherlands government coalition collapsed due to disagreements over the deployment of troops in Afghanistan. The recent Dutch elections put the right leaning VVD party out in front of Labor by one seat at 31. Though the VVD party has majority seats, it had began the process of negotiating a majority coalition in the 150-seat parliament in step towards forming a new government.

- In The papers: London Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard said the ECB might have to buy "hundreds of billions" of bonds to deal with the EU debt crisis. To date the the ECB's bond purchases have totaled €47B. the article noted that according to Brian Coulton of Fitch Ratings, German members of the ECB appeared to be blocking the sort of intervention in southern European bond markets needed to restore investors confidence. Fitch said European banks have to refinance about €2T of long-term by the end of 2012. ***El Mundo reported that Bank of Spain Deputy Gov warned members of Spain's parliament of a possible liquidity squeeze for the country banks. Deputy Gov Javier Ariztegui said a liquidity squeeze was possible for the wholesale funding market remained closed in the coming months. Ariztegui added that ECB liquidity lines have offered banks a lifeline as lender of last resort, but this cannot go on for ever. The article stated that wholesale markets have been closed since Easter.

- European Stress test publication: Market might question how tough the terms of the tests would be.
- Fitch: ECB must buy 100's of billions of bonds to tame EU debt crisis.
- China Vice Fin Min: The euro is one of many uncertainties facing global economy
- India Central Bank remains concern over inflationary pressures
- Russia says it will be the co-founder of a new world economic order

***Looking Ahead***
- 7:00 (SP) IMF's Strauss-Kahn and Spain PM Zapatero
- 8:00 (IN) India to sell up to a total INR110B in 6.85% 2012 and in 8.2% 2022 Bonds
- 8:00 (PD) Poland May Producer Prices M/M: 0.6%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v -0.5% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland May Sold Industrial Output M/M: -3.4%e v -9.1% prior; Y/Y: 7.9%e v 9.9% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada May Leading Indicators M/M: 0.7%e v 0.9% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Apr Intl Securities Transactions: C$2.5Be v -C$616M prior
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Jun Consumer Confidence: No est v -13.0 prior
- 9:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Tremonti
- 9:45: (GE) Germany Chancellor Merkel
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Retail Sales: 3.5%e v 2.3% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central bank Interest rate Decision: Expected to leave the Overnight Rate Unchanged at 4.50%
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Industrial Production M/M: No est v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 9.2%e v 10.2% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q1 Quarterly GDP: 6.45e v 2.6% prior; Current Account: $400Me v $1.6B prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: 6.9%e v 6.4% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y: 10.55e v 9.3% prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Overnight Lending rate Unchanged at 3.00%


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