User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday June 18, 2010 - 14:26:32 GMT
BHF-Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Briefing - Euro: continuing to recover despite credit fears

FX Briefing 18 June 2010



EU is planning to publish bank stress test results

SNB hints at end of forex market intervention for the time being

FOMC set to maintain monetary policy stance


Euro: continuing to recover despite credit fears

During the course of the week, EUR-USD continued to strengthen. It is now around 1.24 – almost 3 cents higher than on Monday morning. The euro was boosted partly by stronger equity markets, which are reflecting relatively robust global economic growth, and partly – even though this is not confirmed by the latest CFTC data for euro positions of 8 June – by the fact that extremely short net positions seem to have been reduced. Overall, sentiment on the euro is less negative.


It is remarkable that the euro gained ground in the first half of the week against a backdrop of widening credit spreads on southern European countries’ sovereign bonds. On Wednesday, the difference in yield between 10-year Spanish Bonos and benchmark German Bunds widened to a record 221 basis points, over 30 points more than at the close of the previous week.


These developments on the credit side were partly caused by new crisis reports. After the Belgian general election, the Flemish and Walloon separatist parties emerged as the strongest parties, which will probably weaken the heavily indebted central government further. Moreover, on Monday, Moody’s downgraded Greece’s credit rating from A3 to Ba1, so that Greece has now lost its investment grade rating.


This was not wholly unexpected, however. Markets are much more jittery over the risks in the Spanish banking system, particularly the situation  of the Cajas, and the potential consequences for Spanish public finances and banks in the rest of Europe. At the beginning of the week, the Spanish press published a story claiming that the EU Commission, the IMF and the US Treasury (!) were putting together a €250bn rescue package for Spain. Although this was hastily denied, such rumours still tend to have some impact in the present environment. The widening spreads, however, were probably also partly due to the fact that a large number of government bond were about to be issued: in addition to German Bunds and French bonds, €3bn 10-year and €500m 30-year government bonds from Spain and Hungarian bonds totalling over 50bn forints.


The Spanish bonds saw good demand, which calmed markets somewhat. By the end of the week, the spread had narrowed to around 200 points. This was presumably also partly due to the Spanish government’s announcement that it intended to publish stress tests on Spanish banks. On Thursday, the European Council also backed this initiative for more transparency. Towards the end of July, test result are to be published throughout the EU.


The Swiss franc advanced on Thursday across the board, after the SNB had hinted at its quarterly monetary policy meeting that it was not intending to continue intervening in the forex market for the time being. The SNB’s latest statement no longer says that it will attempt to stem an appreciation of the franc. This is because, in view of growing foreign demand and an improvement in the domestic economic situation, the SNB now regards the deflation risk as negligible.


With its inflation forecast of 2.2% for 2012, the SNB is signalling that, in the longer term – if the present trend continues – interest rate hikes could be on the cards. However, the central bank also emphasizes that uncertainty remains very high; that also explicitly includes the option of further intervention in the forex market. After the Swiss monetary policy shift, EUR-CHF dropped to below 1.3750. The record low of 1.3734 will probably have served as a support.


Next week, markets are likely to focus more on America. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee is meeting to discuss monetary policy. We are expecting the Fed’s assessment of the economic outlook to be favourable for the most part. However, it is also likely to point out the weakness in the construction industry, the slow recovery in the labour

market and extensive spare capacity, and underline the uncertainty. Potential risks posed by developments in the eurozone will probably only be mentioned in passing, if at all. Overall, the FOMC is expected to maintain its present monetary policy stance, including the “extended period” phrase.


The markets are probably still expecting the Fed to stick to its soft policy, which should support the euro against the dollar. The European indicators are also likely to have a similar effect: in our view, the sentiment indicators – including the ifo business climate – should turn out to be stable, given the improvement in the order situation and capacity utilization.


Stephan Rieke +49 69 718-4114

Economics Department

+49 69 718-3642

[email protected]

Foreign Exchange Trading

[email protected]

Jörg Isselmann

+49 69 718-2695

Matthias Grabbe / Klaus Näfken

+49 69 718-2688


This report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United States.

© 2007 BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft

All rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.




Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105