Monday June 21, 2010 - 10:33:09 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 21/06/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis June 21,
Analysis: Existing Home Sales
Traders of the US look forward to
the publication of the Existing Home Sales. It measures the annualized number of
existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This
report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to
analysis the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken
as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of
Although it stopped
accurately at it on Friday, the Euro penetrated the descending trend line from
Apr 14th top on the hourly chart. We said about this line on Friday: â€śTesting
this line will be the single most important even for today, and its results will
be very important for the medium term. The Euro now is between breaking this
line and soaring for hundreds on points in the coming days, or dropping from
this test to go back below 1.20 once again.â€ť And after The Euro breaking this
level we can say that we will see it continue to fly, and will get closer to
1.30 with in 1-2 weeks. But for today, if the Euro breaks the resistance 1.2457,
we will target the important levels above 1.25, most important of which for
today are 1.2519 & 1.2604, before targeting higher levels later. But, if we
drop we will target a test of the support 1.2389, and if broken a falling
correction will take us back down to earth, as we target the Fibonacci
retracement levels for the whole rise from 1.1875, which are 1.2240 &
â€˘ 1.2389: an important rising trend line on
the hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.2240: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from
last weeks low to Asian session high.
â€˘ 1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole
rising move from last weeks low to Asian session
â€˘ 1.2457: important intraday level.
1.2519: May 6th high.
â€˘ 1.2604: May 12th
The Dollar/Yen broke the
support specified in Fridayâ€™s report 90.67, and dropped to 90.32, without being
able to reach the first suggested target 89.81. But even though this break (and
the break of the rising trend line from May 20th low) did not make it to its
target, it will have a tremendous effect on the short term direction, and may be
the medium term as well. But, we need a break of todayâ€™s support at 90.49 to say
that we are on the way to the same set of targets we suggested yesterday.
Meaning, if we break 90.49, we will target 89.81 first, and may be 88.96 later.
On the other hand, it is required to keep trading below the broken line, in
order for the negative technical outlook to keep prevailing. The important line
which was broken on Friday is running currently at 91.32. If we keep trading
below this level, it will probably fall more & more. But, if we break above
this level, the Dollar will say no to the downside scenario, and will test the
area which stopped the rise twice on June 7th & June 14th at 92.07, and then
92.56. It seems like we are going to enjoy an exciting end to this week with the
â€˘ 90.49: important intraday support.
89.81: May 26th low.
â€˘ 88.96: May 20th low.
91.32: the retest level for the trend line which was broken on Friday.
92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th.
â€˘ 92.56: Apr
by Munther Marji for Forexpros. ---
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to change at any time.
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